Key investment points
Highlights of our report: 1) materials: only high-quality TPO coiled materials can meet the requirements of roof photovoltaic waterproof, and the weather resistance of some TPO coiled materials can not achieve a service life of 25 years. 2) Technology: the waterproof treatment of photovoltaic and waterproof enterprises is different. The scheme of waterproof enterprises is to integrate mature waterproof technology with photovoltaic modules to provide an integrated solution. The waterproof performance has been tested by the market. 3) Detailed calculation of market space: the waterproof demand of photovoltaic roof comes from industrial roof, and the demand of stock roof should be divided into pilot and non pilot counties of the whole county for calculation respectively; The newly-built roof needs waterproof treatment whether it is equipped with photovoltaic or not, and its waterproof increment demand comes from the price difference of replacing the waterproof method. 4) Advantages of waterproof Enterprises: the core advantage that waterproof enterprises can enter the photovoltaic roof waterproof market is that they master the resources of high-quality roof owners and can use channels for drainage. At the same time, the leading capital advantage can be supported by high investment in equipment and raw materials and building materials and technical barriers.
Policies promote the development of distributed photovoltaic, and photovoltaic roof waterproofing welcomes the development opportunity. Distributed photovoltaic is jointly driven by the promotion of the whole county (676 are submitted to the whole county, accounting for 23.8%), the double carbon policy (the photovoltaic coverage rate of new plants will reach 50% in 2025) and the increase of electricity price (cost pressure catalyzes the application of industrial roof photovoltaic). We hope to meet the rapid development. Waterproof treatment of roof photovoltaic is the premise. The 25-year life cycle of photovoltaic modules needs to ensure the same waterproof life. The existing roof waterproof life is short, and adding photovoltaic is easy to aggravate leakage, giving birth to new demand for high-quality waterproof, and photovoltaic roof waterproof welcomes development opportunities.
In terms of materials, high-quality TPO coiled material has excellent characteristics and is suitable for photovoltaic roof waterproof. The waterproof materials of photovoltaic roof are required to have strong weather resistance to high temperature / ultraviolet light. For example, the temperature of some BIPV exceeds 80 ℃. TPO coiled material has stronger weather resistance and better waterproof effect than other coiled materials under extreme temperature. However, the heat resistance of some low-quality TPO coiled materials is not strong enough. Only high-quality TPO coiled materials can meet the 25 year requirements of photovoltaic roofing.
Technically, photovoltaic enterprises tend to be structural waterproof, and the scheme provided by waterproof enterprises is a further integrated application of mature technologies. Photovoltaic enterprises start with roof structure and materials and tend to be structural waterproof; Waterproof enterprises adopt the flexible waterproof treatment method of TPO coiled material. The different treatment methods come from the difference of resource endowment. The waterproof enterprise technology has been applied in roof waterproof and single-layer roof system for many years. We believe that the technical scheme provided by the waterproof enterprise is actually integrated with photovoltaic on the basis of mature technology. Compared with the photovoltaic enterprise scheme, it has been verified by practice for many years.
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2025, the annual average stock + the contribution of new roofs to the market incremental demand of waterproof materials is about 15 billion. The photovoltaic roof waterproof market can be divided into stock and new roof. 1) Stock: split the pilot counties and non pilot counties of the whole county. In the 22-25 years, the average annual demand for labor and materials in the pilot counties was 6.39 billion, and the average annual demand in the non pilot counties was 6.3 billion, totaling 12.68 billion. 2) New construction: assuming that the photovoltaic coverage rate in 22-25 years is 35% / 40% / 45% / 50%, the corresponding demand for labor and materials is 115.5/132148.5/16.5 billion. New roofs, whether or not equipped with photovoltaic, need waterproof treatment. The incremental demand for waterproof comes from the price difference of replacing waterproof methods. We calculate that the incremental demand in recent four years is 23.1/26.4/29.7/33 billion.
The channel and material technology have significant advantages, and the waterproof faucet has been opened. We believe that high-quality roofing is an important resource and is mostly concentrated in waterproof enterprises, which is its core competitiveness in the market. In addition, the leader has capital advantages, which can increase the investment in equipment and raw materials (more than 50 million for single line high-quality TPO / PVC coil equipment, and only 1-5 million in China), build material technical barriers, and its reliability has been proved by the application of material technology for many years. The layout of waterproof leaders has been opened through strategic cooperation with photovoltaic enterprises and joint ventures. System solutions have been launched for Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) and cross-border leaders Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) and Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) in the hope of gradually forming performance contributions.
Risk tips: the demand and policy promotion are not as expected, the competition is intensified, the substitution risk of materials and construction technology, the risk of information lag or untimely update.
