Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: auto production and sales decline due to weak supply and demand, and pay attention to the rhythm of resumption of production
In March, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.241 million and 2.234 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 23.4% and 28.4% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 11.7% respectively. From January to March, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 6.484 million and 6.599 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and 0.2% respectively. The industry was affected by the epidemic, resulting in weak supply and demand and downward pressure.
According to the passenger car data of the Federation of passenger cars from April 1 to 10, the retail end decreased by 32% year-on-year and 39% month on month compared with the same period in March; The wholesale end decreased by 39% year-on-year and 45% month on month compared with the same period in March.
Passenger cars: the supply in key areas is weak, and the pressure continues to conduct. In March, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1.881 million and 1.864 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% and 0.6% respectively. From January to March, the production and sales of passenger cars were 5.499 million and 5.545 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and 9% respectively. The epidemic situation in automobile industry clusters such as Shanghai and Changchun has a direct impact on production, the pressure of parts in the middle reaches is gradually transmitted to other regions, and the tension of supply chain logistics is still spreading. More noteworthy is the policy stimulus expectation if the epidemic situation improves.
Commercial vehicles: continued weakness. The production and sales of commercial vehicles were 360000 and 370000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.0% and 43.5% respectively. From January to March, 985000 and 965000 commercial vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.7% and 31.7% respectively. Freight cars are still affected by demand overdraft, and passenger cars are subject to the weakening of transportation demand; Under the background of steady growth, there is still uncertainty on the demand side of infrastructure, real estate, logistics and passenger transport.
New energy: maintain a high level. In March, 465000 and 484000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times, and the market penetration rate in that month was 21.7%. From January to March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.293 million and 1.257 million respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 19.3%. Pure electric sales increased by 1.3 times and plug-in hybrid power increased by 2 times, continuing to reach a new high.
Recently, the automobile industry has been affected by the epidemic. All parties in the industrial chain have responded actively and paid attention to the rhythm of resumption of production. Since April 13, Changchun has gradually resumed production, some enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have started closed-loop management and actively guaranteed supply, and some auto enterprises in Shanghai have also started preparations for resumption of work since April 18, which will play a positive role in stabilizing the industry.
Market review:
As of the closing on April 15, the auto sector was – 2.7% and the CSI 300 index was – 1%. The decline of the auto sector was more 1PCT than that of the CSI 300 index. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 15th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been – 25.2%, ranking 28th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: all sectors fell, while the parts sector fell significantly. Other auto parts (- 5.6%), automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 4.8%) and motorcycles (- 4.5%) led the decline.
Up and down of sub sectors since the beginning of the year: all sectors showed a downward trend. The sectors of automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 37.7%), other auto parts (- 29.8%) and commercial trucks (- 29.7%) decreased significantly.
Top five gainers and Losers: China International Marine Containers (Group) Co.Ltd(000039) , Ningbo Tianlong Electronics Co.Ltd(603266) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) , Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) , West Shanghai Automotive Service Co.Ltd(605151) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Qingdao Hi-Tech Moulds & Plastics Technology Co.Ltd(301022) , Senci Electric Machinery Co.Ltd(603109) , Rayhoo Motor Dies Co.Ltd(002997) , Hyunion Holding Co.Ltd(002537) , Hunan Tyen Machinery Co.Ltd(600698) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and sales fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; Intensified market competition
