Energy storage:
1. On April 15, Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the publicity on new energy storage demonstration projects in Zhejiang Province:
(1) in terms of quantity, the total scale exceeds 34 projects, with a total scale of 1453mw / 4155mwh. Among them, there are 4 power side projects with a total scale of 122mw / 122mwh; 20 grid side projects with a total scale of 1016mw / 2072mwh; 10 user side projects with a total scale of 315mw / 1961mwh.
(2) in terms of technical category, it is mainly lithium iron phosphate, involving molten salt heat storage, liquid air, zinc nickel liquid flow battery, iron chromium liquid flow battery, AGM lead-acid lead-carbon battery and other technical routes.
(3) from the perspective of developers, mainly developers in the province.
(4) following the announcement of 3103mw new energy storage demonstration projects in 2022 in Shandong Province on April 7, Zhejiang Province announced the list of 1453mw projects this week. It is expected that all provinces and cities will successively launch relevant notice documents. We are optimistic about China’s energy storage installation in the past two years.
2. Valuation: under the high growth rate of the industry, the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range. With the high cost of raw materials, we expect the global energy storage industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022. Starting from the phased high at the end of November 2021, as of April 15, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 40%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on April 15, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 / 2023 PE is 36 / 25 times 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 022 / 2023 PE is 31 / 24 times.
3. Investment: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market’s expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China’s steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on April 15, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 23 times.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Energy storage at grid side: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) s & T of China Southern Power Grid, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) s & T, Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The state grid investment is lower than the expected risk.
