Investment advice
Market review: this week, the CSI 300 index fell 0.99%, and the Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index rose 1.14%. Among the secondary sub industries, feed, grain and oil processing and seed production ranked first, rising by 5.03%, 3.97% and 3.90% respectively. Top three gainers of some key stocks: Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) (+ 15.50%), Xinjiang Talimu Agriculture Development Co.Ltd(600359) (+ 15.06%), Joyvio Food Co.Ltd(300268) (+ 13.12%). Top three declines: Hubei Wuchangyu Co.Ltd(600275) (- 12.43%), Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) (- 10.23%), St Toyo (- 9.27%).
Pig breeding: the notice on the bidding transaction of the fourth batch of central reserve frozen pork in 2022 issued by huachu.com on April 12 proposes to complete the collection and storage of 40000 tons of frozen pork on April 14. After the completion of this collection and storage, the cumulative collection and storage volume will reach 158000 tons in 2022. According to the pig sales briefing of various listed companies in March, the growth rate of listed pig enterprises in the first quarter showed obvious differentiation, but the overall slaughter volume still maintained a positive growth. At present, the supply of live pigs is still sufficient. At the same time, covid-19 epidemic has affected the transportation of live pigs and downstream consumption. It is expected that the price of pigs will continue to be under pressure. At present, the loss of self breeding and autotrophy is - 531 yuan / head, up from - 3.91% last week. Under the two-way squeeze of rising feed costs and sluggish pig prices, the deregulation of production capacity is expected to accelerate. At present, the valuation of pig breeding stocks is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to look at the long term from the short term, and pay attention to the cyclical upward certainty expectation brought by the deregulation of production capacity. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
Planting industry chain: under the influence of the Russian Ukrainian war, it is estimated that the sowing area of spring sowing crops such as corn, grain, sugar beet and Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Limited Liability Company(300111) in Ukraine and China is about 13.4 million hectares, a decrease of 3.5 million hectares compared with 2021, and the output of main crops is expected to decrease by 20%. Considering that the total exports of wheat and corn in Ukraine account for 12% and 16% of the total global exports respectively, the reduction of grain exports in Ukraine, drought in South America, late sowing of Winter Wheat in China and other factors lead to tight global food supply, it is expected that grain prices may remain high this year. In 2021, China's external dependence on soybeans and corn was 85.5% and 9.39% respectively. The unit yield of corn and soybeans in China was less than 60% of that in the United States. In 2022, the No. 1 central document put forward: vigorously promote the key agricultural core technologies such as provenance, implement the action plan of seed industry revitalization, and launch major projects of agricultural biological breeding to ensure national food security. In March 2022, the Central Committee's opinions on doing a good job in promoting the Rural Revitalization in 2022 were also pointed out that we should strengthen the key agricultural core technologies such as provenance and tackle the financial security problems. Once again, it demonstrates the government's determination to vigorously support the development of seed industry. In the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : abundant reserves of transgenic technology, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to increase both quantity and price.
Poultry breeding: the avian influenza epidemic in the United States continues to spread. In the future, China may ban the import of poultry products from the United States to protect China's biosafety. Due to the improvement of industry prosperity caused by the expectation of Customs closure, the outlook of white feather chicken industry chain rebounded this week, and the prices of related products increased significantly. The average price of white feather chicken rose to 8.89 yuan / kg, up + 3.86% from last week; The average price of broiler seedlings in the main producing areas rose to 2.09 yuan / feather, up + 22.22% from last week. The bird flu epidemic caused the loss of more than 19 million laying hens on commercial farms in the United States, accounting for about 6% of the total number of chickens; As the largest egg supplier in the European Union, France has culled about 8% of its laying hens. Under the joint action of many factors, the global egg price continues to rise. At present, the white feather broiler industry is still in a state of oversupply. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the policy on the stock of ancestral chickens and the promotion process of breeding chickens in China. Highlights: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : own ancestral breeding chickens, sell breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
Risk warning: capacity reduction is less than expected / the promotion process of GM corn is delayed / animal disease outbreak / Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation.
