Resumption 2020: the bottom of H1 accelerated to take stores, and the sector exceeded significantly. (1) Market performance: before August 2020, the relative income of stewed flavor enterprises was outstanding. Juewei / zhouheiya / Huangshanghuang increased by 138% / 130% / 98% respectively, food and beverage (CITIC) increased by 73% and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 increased by 21% in the same period. Among them, Hubei was the core source of excess return after it was unsealed on April 8. (2) Driving force: from the perspective of the core driving force of stock price, the pace of opening stores against the trend exceeds market expectations and provides support for the repair elasticity in the peak sales season in the second and third quarters; (3) Performance: taking juewe as an example, in 2020q1, the revenue side only declined in single digits, and the expenses such as franchisee subsidies were advanced. 2020q2-3 ushered in the cost and expense side repair elasticity. In the second quarter, the growth rate of revenue and profit side was basically straightened out, and the profit side was accelerated in the third quarter.
Benchmarking 2020: the same acceleration of bottom store expansion, different costs and expectations. (1) Similarities: accelerate the expansion of stores at the bottom and wait for the conduction in Q3 peak season. According to the statistics of narrow door restaurant, Jue Wei opened the bottom acceleration store expansion strategy in the first quarter, and it is expected that more than 600 stores will be opened in Q1; According to the disclosure on the official website, Zhou Heiya expects to open 200 new stores in Q1. The peak season of leisure marinated flavor is generally concentrated from May to October. Taking Jue flavor as an example, Q3’s operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent accounts for 28% / 33% of the whole year, including 28% / 34% in 2020. (2) Differences: ① scope of influence: in 2020, the impact of the epidemic was mainly regional, showing a national diffusion trend this year, with Shanghai, Jilin and Guangdong ranking first in the number of new cases. According to the data of narrow door meal, Jue Wei / Zhou black duck / Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) accounts for 13% / 22% / 25% in stores in Shanghai, Jilin and Guangdong; Jueweihe Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) has a wider influence than that in 2020, and the influence of the number of weekly black duck stores is better than that in 2020. ② Cost and price increase: since 2020q1, the gross profit margin of duck has continued to improve in the second quarter of the statement end. In this round, due to the slaughter side constraints caused by the epidemic, the duck vice price deviates from the price of hairy duck. The year-on-year price of 2020q3 duck neck reaches a high point, which is reflected in 2020q4 or the bottom of the gross profit margin. Superimposed with last year’s high base, Q1 price increase transmission and cost front, it is expected to improve the elasticity of the profit side in the second quarter. ③ Diversified coping strategies: Jue Wei’s “start a prairie fire” and “accept all rivers” projects contribute to channel sinking and regional turnover. The store opening model also focuses on community stores and campus stores less disturbed by the epidemic. Compared with 2020, under the learning effect, this round of response is faster and the store opening toolbox is richer.
Deduction 2022: the end of the valuation has been realized, and grasp the investment opportunity of performance restoration after the epidemic. In the short term, the inflection point of the epidemic and the acceleration of store opening are expected to usher in a new market; From the perspective of longer cycle, Juewei, zhouheiya and Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) are currently at the bottom of the valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom layout opportunities under the impact of the epidemic.
Investment suggestion: the bottom area and elasticity can be expected. Referring to the market deduction in 2020, the platform company Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , which has strong learning effect and expands stores against the trend at the bottom, is recommended to pay attention to Zhou Heiya, who has recovered traffic and greater profit elasticity, and Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) , who has accelerated national expansion.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation is repeated, the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected, the cost model and relevant calculations have limitations, and the pace of opening stores and the level of single stores are lower than expected.
