TSMC’s tight production capacity will run through 2022, and there is no danger of expanding production. The gross profit margin of Q1 ~ 2022 is better than the guidance of Q1, and the gross profit margin of Q1 ~ 2022 is better than the guidance of Q1 (the gross profit margin is $225.5 billion). 2022q1 revenue of NT $491.08 billion (US $17.57 billion), yoy + 36.0%, QoQ + 11.6%; The gross profit margin was 55.6%, year-on-year + 3.2pt, month on month + 2.9%. TSMC’s capital expenditure this year is still maintained under the guidance of the Legal Conference in January 2022, with a scale of US $40 billion to US $44 billion. The 2022 expansion plan is not affected by the tight supply of equipment and materials. In 2022, TSMC’s production capacity will continue to be tight, and customer inventories will maintain a historically high level for a long time; Strong demand in 5g, HPC and other fields; Silicon content in HPC, automobile, mobile phone, IOT and other fields continued to increase
The downstream expanded production and high prosperity, and the product power of semiconductor equipment increased to accelerate the replacement. According to semi, the mainland equipment market accounted for less than 10% of the global market before 2013 and remained above 20% after 2018, with an upward trend year by year. In 2020, China invested in the construction of wafer factories and increased investment in the semiconductor industry. The scale of the mainland semiconductor equipment market ranked first in the world for the first time, reaching US $18.1 billion, yoy + 35.1%, accounting for 26.2%. According to icinsights, by 2024, IDM + pure play foundry will correspond to a total market size of about US $107.5 billion; With the downstream expansion of production, the mainland equipment market space is still expected to grow further. The localization rate of mainland manufacturers is currently low, and the share is expected to increase rapidly.
Multiple brands are ready to go, the superposition price is going down, and the heat of folding screen is rising again. On April 11, vivo released its first folding screen mobile phone xfold, which adopts the world’s first internal and external 120hze5 dual home screen, and the world’s first 3D ultrasound dual screen fingerprint. At the same time, space grade floating wing hinge and zirconium alloy floating sector are adopted to greatly improve the crease. (1) Samsung Huawei leads the trend, and new models emerge one after another. Samsung and Huawei are one of the first mainstream brands to lead the boom of folding screen: Samsung flip, fold and Huawei Matex series have continued to produce new products since November 19. The share of 21q3 Samsung folding screen mobile phones is as high as 93%. (2) Looking forward to the progress of multi brand layout, folding screen mobile phones will be more prosperous and ecological! The first folding mobile phones of Xiaomi (mixfold), oppo (findn) and magicv have been released successively from 2021 to 2022. At present, the selling price of folding screen terminals is mostly reduced to less than 10000 yuan, and the sales volume is expected to continue to exceed expectations in 2022.
Attach great importance to the unprecedented reconstruction and change of China’s semiconductor and automobile industry pattern, as well as the leader of consumer electronics segment:
1) semiconductor core design: industrial opportunities such as optical chip, storage, simulation, RF, power, FPGA, processor and IP;
2) semiconductor OEM, packaging and testing and supporting service industry chain;
3) core target of intelligent vehicle;
4) VR, miniled, panel, optics, battery and other subdivision tracks;
5) core leading company of Apple industrial chain.
See investment suggestions on the last page for relevant core targets
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected risk, and there is a risk of Sino US trade friction
