This week’s opinion update:
The “steady growth” market will continue to focus on central construction enterprises: the central bank announced that the reserve requirement will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, and the high-level attitude of protecting the economy is clear. The epidemic continued to ferment, and the necessity of “steady growth” was further enhanced. We judge that the “steady growth” market will continue to focus on the central construction enterprises. Recently, the main central construction enterprises have successively disclosed the annual report and the operation in the first quarter, showing strong resilience. The newly signed orders have improved to varying degrees driven by the recovery of infrastructure investment, and the valuation safety margin is strong, which is the priority choice for the “steady growth” investment direction.
The margin of real estate policy continues to improve, and the valuation elasticity of leading building materials enterprises is expected: with the gradual adjustment of policies since December 21, the credit crisis of real estate developers has been gradually alleviated; Under the background of urban policy implementation, all localities have gradually introduced loose policies in the real estate industry, which may be conducive to the bottom recovery of demand in advance. We emphasize that the 22-year “guaranteed delivery” is still the key direction throughout the year, and the float glass in the completion link is relatively optimal. We recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ; The valuation of consumer building materials has been attractive, and the later policy catalysis is conducive to the valuation repair of leading enterprises.
Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange publicly solicit opinions, and the raising of REITs has far-reaching significance: Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange publicly solicit opinions on the raising of REITs. The raising of REITs will help simplify the process of issuing REITs, improve the quality of underlying assets and disperse the risks of REITs projects. Recently, we held a series of REITs meetings to reaffirm the importance of REITs for credit expansion and infrastructure investment and financing. We are also optimistic about the value revaluation opportunities for enterprises holding more operating assets under the background of high premium issuance of REITs.
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was – 5.13%, of which the decline of other decorative materials was the smallest (- 2.02%) and glass was the largest (- 11.87%); This week, CITIC construction index was – 5.16%, with the smallest decline (- 2.78%) in the housing construction sector and the largest decline (- 10.25%) in the building decoration II sector; This week, the infrastructure public offering REITs sector fell by – 0.37% (arithmetic average), among which Soochow Suyuan industrial REIT rose the most (+ 3.53%), and Shougang green energy fell the most (- 2.63%).
High frequency data (4.9-4.15): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 515 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of -0.07%; The storage capacity ratio is 67.19%, with a month on month ratio of + 0.06pct. Glass: this week’s glass inventory was 672686 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of + 2.53%. The average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was 27.5 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass was 21.20 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn this week was 6450 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 8750 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. Carbon fiber: the average market price of carbon fiber this week was 186.25 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow in China is 145 yuan / kg, and the average price of small tow in China is 225 yuan / kg, which is flat month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); In the direction of capital construction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (it is suggested to pay attention to: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The time point for strategic layout of consumer building materials has come (it is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) etc.); Revaluation of sector value brought by public offering REITs of infrastructure construction (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.); Be optimistic about the development trend of green building industry and pay attention to the thematic opportunities of building energy conservation.
Preferred portfolio: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (15xpe, optimistic about the equipment rental track), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.6xpb, revaluation of stock operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.7xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (11xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the emission reduction trend), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (7xpe, performance elasticity of float glass and valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (30xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
