Macro: on April 15, the central bank announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 points on April 25, 2022. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1%. The US CPI hit a 40 year high in March. On April 12, the US Department of labor data showed that the US CPI in March rose by 8.5% year-on-year, a new high since December 1981. This is the sixth consecutive month that the year-on-year growth rate of us CPI exceeded 6%.
Steel: steady growth is expected to strengthen, and the steel sector is gradually developing. This week, the output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.80% month on month, and the consumption decreased significantly by 4.38% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 73.7%, with a significant decrease of 1.70pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission will maintain the normal order of the market and ensure the stable operation of iron ore and coal prices, which may benefit steel enterprises on the cost side.
New energy metals: Overseas lithium ore prices continued to rise, and China’s lithium market callback. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 491000 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.10% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 494000 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.50% month on month. This week, MB standard cobalt increased slightly on a month on month basis, while Co3O4 decreased slightly on a month on month basis. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $33250 / ton, down 2.49% month on month.
Industrial metals: inflation and steady growth expectations are superimposed, and copper and aluminum operate at a high level. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly by 1.60% month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output increased significantly in December, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level of 90% in February, and increased slightly by 0.61pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month, while LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased slightly by 1.09% on a month on month basis this week, and the current price of LME aluminum increased significantly by 2.15% on a month on month basis; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia decreased month on month this week.
Gold: the US CPI was high in March, and the gold price rose slightly month on month. COMEX gold prices rose slightly by 1.37% month on month this week, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased significantly by 4.68% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 2.83%, up slightly by 0.11pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: Steel: in terms of plain steel, it is suggested to focus on the one hand, on the one hand, on the proposed Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) \ ( Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 070707070707070708, buy in, Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 07070708, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in), and ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to new energy nuclear power special material suppliers, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy) with both copper and gold ends expanding; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
