Core view
The A-share index generally fell slightly this week, and the ranking performance of the machinery industry was poor. We believe that in the first quarter of 2022, the pressure on China's economy to maintain growth continued to increase, and the outlook of export-oriented manufacturing industry accelerated to decline month on month. Affected by the upstream price rise, the decline of export orders and the impact of China's epidemic spread on demand and production, the operation of the manufacturing industry was under pressure in the second quarter.
From the perspective of fundamentals, it is necessary to pay close attention to digitization and intelligence, double carbon goal and greening, internal circulation construction and supply chain reconstruction in 2022. It is a clear three major trends at present and in the future. It focuses on the new infrastructure of China's digital economy, advanced manufacturing special equipment such as new energy and semiconductors, the performance recovery exceeding expectations and the related targets of domestic alternative basic components that continue to be strengthened in the 14th five year plan.
This week is the second week of April 2022. Coal, food and beverage, business retail, beauty care and household appliances have the best performance, with positive weekly increases and decreases, and power equipment, media, communication, architectural decoration and computer have the worst performance. Compared with last week, the post epidemic recovery related sectors performed better, while the original power equipment, meta universe, computers and other growth sectors performed worse. Among the concept sectors, prefabricated dishes, unified big market, food processing, intelligent logistics and beverage manufacturing performed best; Covid-19 specific drugs, cro index, lithium cathode, photovoltaic inverter and auto parts have the worst performance. This week's market style is extreme. The market is concerned about the epidemic and post epidemic related sectors. We believe that the market is expected to reduce the intensity of epidemic prevention and control measures, mainly because the corresponding sectors have been fully adjusted in the early stage. In essence, the game of stock funds in Shanghai and the rapid rotation of industry sectors show that although the RRR reduction is expected to be implemented, the market risk appetite is still tight.
This week, the market still went down and pulled back. The Shanghai Stock Index operated in the upper half of the K line last week, while the gem composite continued to go down. Both the Shanghai stock index and the gem composite continued to shrink significantly, which belongs to the second bottom in the process of withdrawal, but the amplitude and rhythm need to be observed. At present, we should not be optimistic about the height of anti pumping. If the amount of energy is insufficient, if it is blocked, the probability may evolve into an interval shock trend in the future. From the perspective of structure, the market still shows a trend of rapid rotation of rise and fall, killing the fall over the rise and making up the rise over the fall. This trend is expected to continue. In the medium term, some leading stocks may still have room and time for adjustment. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) hit a recent low this week, but the adjustment range is not sufficient and may continue to explore. Affected by the continuous withdrawal of the real estate purchase restriction policy, the performance of the real estate and infrastructure industry chain continues to be good, indicating that the market is more worried about the pressure to maintain growth. It is expected that the market will still focus on the new and old infrastructure sectors related to maintaining growth. This week, the detection boxes, antigens, special drugs and traditional Chinese medicine related to the epidemic situation have been significantly adjusted. We believe that the epidemic situation is still the hot sector concerned by the market. At present, there has been a large correction, and there is still the possibility of hot rotation. On the contrary, the real estate sector should not be significantly higher, and the construction and building materials sectors of central enterprises with reasonable valuation can still be paid appropriate attention.
Short term capital behavior does not change the medium-term trend. Investors should choose appropriate strategies and investment cycles according to the nature of funds. April has entered the intensive disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, and the performance has become the core variable leading the market. However, the first quarter of 21 was mostly the high point of manufacturing performance, and the sectors with good year-on-year growth of manufacturing performance in the first quarter of 22 were limited. Affected by the expansion of the scope and depth of sanctions against Russia, localization is still the focus of the capital market, the relevant benefit tracks will still be the focus of capital allocation, and specialization and innovation are expected to become a hot spot in the near future.
We believe that the downward systemic risk of the market will be temporarily alleviated next week. If the sector rotation is too fast, we should still control the position to defend and counterattack. The fundamental principle is to participate in the new hot spots as soon as possible, continue to avoid the sectors with funds holding together and rising too high, and operate with band ideas. For fundamental investment, we still suggest to select those specialized special new sub industries with better performance than expected in 21 years and continuous prosperity in 22 years for medium-term or above allocation. Focus on allocating oversold stocks with good fundamentals, and pay attention to sectors with strong certainty and reasonable valuation. In the medium term, we will still focus on the growing technology manufacturing enterprises that match the growth and valuation, as well as the new high-quality track sector under the dual carbon background. We will continue to optimize the investment logic related to the import substitution logic of the aerospace military industry sector (civil military, missile), new energy (wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy and nuclear energy) and other related advanced manufacturing sectors supported by performance or growth expectations. At the same time, Continue to moderately hold the targets of the science and technology sector (third-generation semiconductor, big data, automotive intelligence, miniled and VR) at the inflection point of prosperity.
The relevant marks are related to the following: Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co.Ltd(002931) 197 etc.
Market performance
This week, the Shanghai stock index fell 1.25%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.99%, the gem composite fell 4.75%, and the China Securities 1000 fell 4.57%. The wind tertiary industry index machinery industry fell 4.99%, ranking 51 / 62 in the industry growth week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.74 percentage points.
In the machinery industry of the wind tertiary industry index, the top five stocks in the week were Yuhuan Cnc Machine Tool Co.Ltd(002903) , Shanghai Hi-Tech Control System Co.Ltd(002184) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Jiangsu Safety Wire Rope Co.Ltd(603028) and Weihai Huadong Automation Co.Ltd(002248) , up 31.57%, 14.26%, 13.95%, 12.99% and 10.05% respectively. The top five stocks with declines were Tangshan Jidong Equipment And Engineering Co.Ltd(000856) , Shaoyang Victor Hydraulics Co.Ltd(301079) , Inno Laser Technology Co.Ltd(301021) , Wuhan Golden Laser Co.Ltd(300220) and Tjk Machinery (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(300823) , with declines of - 23.40%, - 21.10%, - 19.33%, - 16.77% and - 16.13% respectively.
This week, the main indexes of the market index generally fell, and the performance of the machinery sector was poor. The top five companies rose by more than 10%, and the top ten companies fell by more than 10%. Individual stocks in the industry rose less and fell more as a whole.
Industry dynamics
\u3000\u30001. The return module of Shenzhou 13 manned spacecraft landed successfully and the mission was a complete success (Financial Associated Press)
\u3000\u30002. The full flow test of the first pump set of Zhangzhou main pump was successfully completed ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) information network)
Risk tips
The promotion and implementation of industrial policies are lower than expected, the change of market style has brought down the valuation center of the machinery industry, the pressure on profitability caused by rising costs, and the systemic risk caused by the spread of epidemic abroad.
