Plate review
Last week’s performance: from April 11 to April 15, most of shenwanyi industries fell, among which communications, media and power equipment fell the most, with a decline of 5.67%, 6.39% and 7.37% respectively; Coal, food and beverage and commercial snacks increased the most, with increases of 5.02%, 4.40% and 3.12% respectively; Power equipment ranked last, with a decrease of 7.37%.
The top ten stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector last week last week last week are among the top ten stocks of the new energy sector that saw the new energy sector rising in the new energy sector last week. The top ten stocks of the new energy sector in the new energy sector last week last week. The top ten stocks of the new energy sector last week are: Beijing Inhand Networks Technology Co.Ltd(688080) 80 Beijing Inhand Networks Technology Co.Ltd(688080) 8063 66%), China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) (2.03%), sun chasing electric (1.50%), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (0.68%). The ten stocks with the top ten stocks falling in the top ten of the decline are: Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (- 14.71%), Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) (- 14.56%), Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) (- 14.48%).
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of new energy vehicles
On April 11, China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance announced that in March 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output and installed capacity were 39.18gwh and 21.42gwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 247.28% and 138.04%. The loading volume of power battery was 21.40gwh, up 138.00% year-on-year and 56.60% month on month, showing a rapid growth trend. The loading volume of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) achieved 10.81gwh, accounting for 50.5%, and the industry concentration was further improved. The output of ternary battery was 15.6gwh, with a market share of 39.7%, a year-on-year increase of 167.3% and a month on month increase of 33.8%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 23.6gwh, with a market share of 60.2%, a year-on-year increase of 332.9% and a month on month increase of 17.6%. The market share of lithium iron phosphate battery was further expanded. On the same day, the China Automobile Industry Association released data that the cumulative output of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles from January to March 2022 was 1.293 million, a year-on-year increase of 142.0%; The sales volume was 1.257 million, a year-on-year increase of 138.60%. In March, the output of new energy vehicles was 465000, with a month on month increase of 25.40% and a year-on-year increase of 114.80%; The sales volume was 484000, an increase of 43.90% month on month, a year-on-year increase of 114.10%, and the market penetration reached 19.30%, showing a steady growth compared with the proportion of 13.40% in the whole year of last year. Overall, the output of power batteries continued to rise in March, with the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries leading that of ternary batteries by a large margin. The market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranked first, and the industry concentration further improved. China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises showed a great growth trend. In contrast, the market share of battery enterprises in Japan and South Korea continued to decline. With the increasing demand certainty of China’s electrification market, It is expected that China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises are expected to take the lead in the future. Despite the slight decline in the production and sales volume of the automobile market, all automobile enterprises collectively announced the price increase of their new energy vehicles. Since the beginning of the year, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has still exceeded one million, continued the rapid growth momentum, and performed better than the overall automobile industry. It is expected that the market penetration of new energy vehicles is expected to further improve and accelerate the electric transformation of the automobile industry.
However, affected by the outbreak of the epidemic all over the country, since April, especially the new energy vehicle enterprises in Shanghai and Jilin, such as Tesla, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Xiaopeng and FAW Group, have mostly shut down or reduced production, and the production capacity and logistics of parts and components have stagnated. Shanghai, as the core of the national automobile industry community, the epidemic has put the new energy vehicle and auto parts industry under dual pressure from supply and demand, and the industrial chain has been severely challenged. In this regard, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a document to go all out to ensure smooth logistics and stabilize the industrial chain supply chain, take multiple measures to support the stable production of key enterprises in Shanghai, establish a “white list” of key enterprises to ensure the operation and transfer, and give priority to the resumption of work and production of 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine. At present, many new energy vehicle enterprises have actively promoted the resumption of work and production: FAW Group fully started the resumption of work on April 11 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) issued the notice on Issuing the guidelines for prevention and control of epidemic situation of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) resumption of work and production on April 15, requiring all subordinate enterprises of the group to carry out stress tests in five aspects: personnel support, supply chain support, logistics support, closed production management and epidemic prevention measures according to the provisions of the guidelines for resumption of work and production. Enterprises with successful stress tests will arrange the production of complete vehicles and parts as soon as possible; The Ministry of industry and information technology of Ningde City issued passes for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to ensure the timeliness of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) passing through all high-speed checkpoints and the normal operation of the enterprise. The company adopted strict grid management to ensure the orderly production of Ningde base. With the active promotion of the Ministry of industry and information technology, enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry chain are actively preparing to resume work. It is expected that the prosperity of the automobile industry will gradually recover with the weakening of the impact margin of the follow-up epidemic.
Under the current general trend of vehicle electrification, the global sales of new energy vehicles are still expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. There are still structural opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector in 2022, and short-term adjustment may provide a buying opportunity. According to the prediction of the China Passenger Transport Federation, the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 10 million units in 2022, while the sales volume in China is expected to reach 5 million units. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry chain is expected to fully benefit from the general trend of increasing penetration of electric vehicles. Lithium battery industry chain: it is suggested to focus on leading companies with high self-sufficiency rate in the lithium resources sector, including: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) . With the continuous rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium ore in the upstream and the improvement in the demand for new energy vehicles in the downstream, the price of power batteries may rise in 2022, and battery enterprises are expected to usher in profitable repair. The relevant targets are: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) . It is suggested that the lithium battery material industry chain should pay attention to the enterprises with strong bargaining power, integrated layout and overseas expansion of new customers: the cathode material should pay attention to the lithium iron phosphate and high nickel ternary leaders, and the relevant targets include: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ; Objects related to negative electrode materials: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Electrolyte related targets: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) ; Related objects of diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ; Related targets of lithium battery accessories: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) .
In the field of lithium battery recycling, in the context of the upcoming retirement tide of the power battery recycling industry, it is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with the advantages of first mover and integration in the fields of power battery recycling and manufacturing, standby power and charge and discharge, and the relevant targets include: Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) . Related targets of new energy vehicle sector include: traditional vehicle enterprises Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , new power vehicle enterprises Weilai automobile, ideal automobile and Xiaopeng automobile.
Core viewpoints and investment suggestions of photovoltaic and wind power
Photovoltaic: since last year, the provincial new energy “14th five year plan” objectives have been successively introduced. After excluding the new scale of photovoltaic in 2021, up to now, the new scale of photovoltaic in 25 provinces and cities in the next four years is about 374gw, with an average annual growth rate of more than 90gw / year. From the perspective of provincial and municipal planning, the new scale of Qinghai, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Yunnan is about 30GW, while that of Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangxi and Shaanxi is about 20GW, accounting for about 66% of the total table. Among them, the development of distributed photovoltaic is worthy of attention. While promoting the policies of the whole county at the national level, the provincial and local “14th five year plan” also puts forward relatively clear objectives for distributed photovoltaic. Inner Mongolia requires a new 6Gw, Gansu requires a new 3.5gW, Fujian strives to achieve a total of 3.5gW, and Shandong puts forward a plan to achieve a total of 20GW. With the support of the double carbon goal, the 14th five year plan for new energy development in all provinces and cities is ahead of schedule. With the orderly promotion of the national base + the whole county promotion policy, the economy of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to improve. We expect that the 14th Five Year Plan period will usher in the year of photovoltaic installation. In addition, with the advantages of small floor area, flexibility and intelligence, distributed PV actively promotes the construction of distributed PV by superimposing the policies of the whole county. Distributed projects still account for a high proportion of new installed capacity in 2022. At the current time point, it is worth noting that although the recent epidemic control has increased the difficulty of logistics and transportation in all links of the photovoltaic industry chain, it has not had a significant impact on the production and operation of all links of the industry chain. The main reason is that the leading companies actively take corresponding measures. The superimposed logistics is not completely static in a large range. In the follow-up, if the epidemic is gradually controlled, logistics and customs clearance will accelerate to make up.
In the short term, the price of photovoltaic in the middle and upper reaches continued to rise slightly last week, which was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in the release of production expansion by large Chinese manufacturers, superimposed by the strong demand in the lower reaches. From the supply side: according to the silicon branch, China’s polysilicon output in March was about 54600 tons, a month on month increase of + 4.4%. In Q1, China’s polysilicon output was about 159000 tons, and the import volume in the same period is expected to be 22000 tons. China’s total silicon material supply was about 181000 tons, lower than expected. Compared with the silicon material demand corresponding to the silicon wafer output of 72gw, the silicon material supply was slightly insufficient. According to the production expansion progress of various enterprises, it is estimated that the output of polycrystalline silicon in Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in China will reach 18 / 18 / 200000 tons respectively in 2022, and the annual overseas polycrystalline silicon supply is expected to be about 100000 tons, with a total silicon supply of about 820000 tons, which can meet the terminal installation demand of about 225gw. From the demand side, the off-season demand for Q1 photovoltaic in 2022 is not light. As of March, the scale of component bid opening / bidding of central state-owned enterprises in 2022 exceeded 45gw, and the operating rate of component manufacturers remained high. Looking ahead to Q2, China suggests paying attention to the construction and commencement of large bases; Overseas, with the end of the rush to load in India, the growth rate of overseas demand may slow down. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, components and terminals may have a heavy wait-and-see mood. Combined with the supply and demand pattern, the overall new supply of Q1 silicon material in 2022 is still insufficient compared with the new demand in the downstream. The mismatch between supply and demand of silicon material is maintained, the price of silicon material maintains a slight upward trend, the battery chip link is in the stage of price game, and the downstream component manufacturers and terminals are in a heavy wait-and-see mood. With the subsequent capacity release of silicon material manufacturers, the prices in the middle and upper reaches are expected to decline, driving the downstream installation demand. Looking forward to April, China: according to the silicon industry branch, there are 1-2 enterprises whose polysilicon output is affected, with a month on month decrease of about 2% – 5%, but two enterprises have expanded their production to provide increment in the same period. It is estimated that China’s silicon material output in April will be 54 Jiangling Motors Corporation Ltd(000550) 00 tons; Overseas: the import volume in April is affected by the epidemic situation, maintenance and international factors. The silicon branch is expected to be flat or slightly reduced month on month. To sum up, the supply decreased, but the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises remained high in the same period. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of silicon material in April is still in a relatively tight state, and the price trend of silicon material will continue at least until the order in May is signed at the end of April.
From a long-term perspective, under the background of “double carbon” and the clear goal that the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% in 2025, the cost of superimposed photovoltaic power generation continues to decline, the economy continues to improve, the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity is high, and the growth certainty is strong. Related targets: 1) silicon material leaders Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , with tight supply and demand pattern and high profitability; 2) Component integrated faucet Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ; 3) Inverter taps benefiting from photovoltaic + energy storage dual wheel drive Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; 4) Photovoltaic glass duopoly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and Xinyi solar energy benefiting from the improvement of the permeability of double glass modules; 5) Subject to the short-term supply bottleneck of raw materials and limited market demand, the leading enterprises in EVA film link Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ; 6) Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , benefiting from the increased proportion of distributed photovoltaic.
Wind power: in the short term, in 2022, the wind power industry will expand intensively, the pace of expansion is in a hurry, the trend of large-scale wind turbines is significant, the overall cost of the industry is expected to continue to decline, and the wind power landscape is expected to improve. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. The wind power industry has broad prospects and long-term growth space. At the same time, offshore wind power is the key to solve the contradiction between insufficient power generation and power load in the eastern coastal areas. Subject matter with cost advantage and technical core competitiveness: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , etc.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The double carbon policy is less than expected; The epidemic development exceeded expectations.
