The demand for thermal coal is low affected by the epidemic and is expected to recover rapidly under positive expectations. In terms of demand, the downstream daily consumption is low and the reservoir is accumulated passively. At present, the power plant is dominated by long-term cooperative transportation, the northern port transactions are significantly reduced, the long-distance shipment is blocked, and the metallurgy and chemical industry are also purchased on demand. At the same time, the heating season ends and the market demand continues to be depressed. In terms of supply, some production areas, such as Shanxi, are greatly affected by the epidemic control, the cross regional long-distance vehicle transportation is difficult, the superimposed railway transportation capacity is tight, the sales of coal mines in production areas are general, and the price of power coal gradually stabilized this week. In terms of import, there are few sources of foreign minerals. When converted to China, the price is upside down, and the import volume continues to decline. Overall, the low demand for thermal coal led to the decline of coal price, but in the later stage, as the epidemic was controlled, the downstream factories started to resume production and boosted demand. In addition, the expected reduction of reserve requirements, stable growth of infrastructure and relaxation of real estate policies will help to improve the downstream demand expectation. Since the beginning of the year, there is still momentum effect in the high price of coal, and the price center of thermal coal is still high. We expect the overall price of thermal coal to gradually stabilize in the second quarter. Throughout the year, the beneficiary capacity side has small elasticity, stable demand and sufficient price support, and is optimistic about the operation of high prices.
With the steady growth of demand and the scarcity of resources, coking coal will continue to benefit in the second quarter. In terms of coking coal, after the northern epidemic eased, the production of steel mills resumed. At present, the operating rate is at a high level in the short term, the demand for replenishment of steel mills has increased, and the rebound of downstream steel prices is superimposed under the expectation of steady growth. At present, the price of coke has continued to rise this week. At present, road transportation has recovered, and coke enterprises replenish raw coal inventories, driving the price of origin to continue to rise steadily. Among them, some lean coal in Hejin area of Yuncheng City, Shanxi Province has increased by 200 yuan / ton, Some gas coal in Zichang area of Shaanxi rose by 100 yuan / ton. In the second quarter, “steady growth” boosted demand, with a high proportion of coking coal on the import side. At present, Mongolia’s customs clearance volume is still low, the import price is still high, and China’s high-quality coking coal resources are relatively scarce. In 2012, Q1 coking coal prices increased significantly year-on-year, and the performance of major coking coal enterprises has increased significantly year-on-year. At present, the tight pattern of supply and demand is difficult to be reversed significantly in the short term. It is expected to maintain a high price in the second quarter and continue to be optimistic about the coking coal market.
The annual report profit of coal enterprises increased significantly in 2021, and the profitability of the coal industry is expected to continue to maintain. This week, listed companies such as power investment energy, Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) and others disclosed their annual reports for 2021. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.56 billion yuan, an increase of 71.92% year-on-year Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) realized a net profit of 3.53 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, with a year-on-year increase of 134.8% Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(600971) realized a net profit of 1.39 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 79.97% year-on-year. In 2021, affected by the tight supply and demand, the price center of coal enterprises rose. At present, the increase of the pricing benchmark of the long-term association has basically become a consensus. The overall profitability of the coal industry has been greatly improved, and it is optimistic that the annual performance will continue to grow.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) .
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, downturn in demand caused by the epidemic, risk of mismatch between supply and demand, coal policy less than expected, etc.
