Core view
1. Since 2022, molybdenum prices have continued to rise. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, on April 15, 2022, the ex factory prices of molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum were 2970 yuan / ton and 189000 yuan / ton respectively, with annual increases of 70.69% and 64.91% respectively. Affected by the high price of finished products, the price of molybdenum concentrate has increased. As of April 15, 2022, the ex factory price of molybdenum concentrate is 2910 yuan / ton, an increase of 25.43% over the beginning of the year and an annual increase of 71.18%, the highest price in history in recent five years. Molybdenum oxide production declined in the first quarter, and the supply pattern was tight. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the output of molybdenum oxide has declined since this year. In the first quarter of 2022, China’s molybdenum oxide output was about 34700 tons, down about 2.3% from 2021. The decline of molybdenum oxide production is mainly affected by the recent epidemic. Under the background of stricter epidemic prevention policies in some cities in China, the logistics of some smelters is limited, and the supply pattern of molybdenum oxide is tight in the short term. Steel plant bidding continued to follow up, driving the overall recovery of molybdenum industry chain. Molybdenum is mainly used in the field of steel, alloy and plastics. Its raw materials are mainly molybdenum oxide and ferromolybdenum. Since 2022, steady growth has become the focus of China’s macro policy. The 102 major projects and key projects of special planning proposed in the outline of the 14th five year plan include infrastructure such as transportation and communication, advanced manufacturing and affordable housing. Driven by the expectation of steady growth, the demand for steel has been relatively strong recently. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the number of molybdenum oxide purchased by steel mills through bidding last week was close to 4000 tons, exceeding market expectations. The increase in the number of steel plant bidding has also driven the gradual large-scale demand for molybdenum oxide and other products. The steady growth policy will continue to make efforts, and the molybdenum price may continue to be strong. In the short term, the commencement of some smelters has been suspended due to the impact of the epidemic, and the downstream demand is high, causing the continuous increase of molybdenum price. In the long run, with the growth of social financing scale, the real estate construction sector will pick up, and the superposition of steady growth policies will drive the steel demand to warm up, and the molybdenum price is expected to maintain growth.
\u3000\u30002. Over the past week, the prices of major non-ferrous metals have fluctuated, including LME zinc up 5.2% and neodymium oxide down 9.4%. In terms of LME zinc, as of April 15, 2022, the settlement price of LME nickel futures was reported at US $4472 / ton, up 5.2% from a week ago. The main reason for the rise of LME zinc price is that the international LME zinc inventory continues to decrease, the supply gap increases, the price rise of overseas natural gas is superimposed, and the pressure on zinc ingot smelting increases; In terms of neodymium oxide, as of April 15, 2022, neodymium oxide reported 870000 yuan / ton, down 9.4% from a week ago. Neodymium oxide fell mainly due to the easing of supply and demand and the general decline in the price of rare earth industry.
\u3000\u30003. The consumer index hit a record high and gold prices fluctuated upward. On April 12, 2022, the U.S. Department of labor announced that the consumer price index in March was 8.5%, a new high in 40 years, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. With the continuous deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Russia announced to expand the scope of attack on Kiev, the safe haven value of gold continued to highlight, and the price fluctuated upward. As of April 15, 2022, Comex gold futures were quoted at US $1972.9/oz, up 1.4% on a weekly basis.
\u3000\u30004. Market review. In the past week, two of CITIC’s non-ferrous metal sub sectors rose, one sector was flat and six sectors fell. Among them, the gold sector rose 5.5%; The top three sectors were rare earth and magnetic materials, nickel cobalt tin antimony and lithium, with declines of 3.2%, 4.9% and 4.9% respectively. In terms of individual stocks, the top three weekly gains were Wanbangde Pharmaceutical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002082) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Xinjiang Joinworld Co.Ltd(600888) , with weekly gains of 15.3%, 12.4% and 11.7% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Anhui Xinbo Aluminum Co.Ltd(003038) , Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) , Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) , with weekly declines of 10.1%, 9.1% and 8.9% respectively.
Investment advice
The price of molybdenum metal continues to rise, and relevant production enterprises in the molybdenum industry may benefit, such as Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.Ltd(601958) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) , etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic risk is intensified, the demand of downstream steel mills is lower than expected, and the pressure on the supply side is eased.
