Events
On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the social zero data for March 2022. Key investment points
In the first quarter of 2022, social zero expanded by 3.3% year-on-year, and China’s epidemic again impacted the consumer market in March: in the first quarter of 22 years, China achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods of 10.87 trillion yuan / + 3.3%, and the three-year compound annual growth rate from 19q1 to 22q1 was 3.6%. Among them, in March, China achieved a total of 3.42 trillion yuan / -3.5%, which was weaker than the market expectation (according to wind, the average year-on-year growth rate of social zero in March was -0.8%), and the average annual compound growth rate in the same period of 19-21 was 2.6%. In March, the growth rate of China’s consumer market changed from positive to negative due to the containment of the epidemic in Jilin Province, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased by 10.2pct compared with that from January to February.
In terms of channels, online channels increased slightly in March, and offline passenger flow / travel has been under pressure for 22 years:
Online, in the first quarter of 2012, the online retail sales of physical goods were 2.5 trillion yuan / + 8.8%, of which food, clothing and consumer goods increased by 13.5%, 0.9% and 10.6% respectively, and the online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 23.2% of social zero. In March alone, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 888.6 billion yuan / + 2.7%. Under the background of strengthening epidemic control in many places, the pressure of logistics express made the growth rate of online channels drop by 10.9 PCT month on month in March.
Offline, in the first quarter of the year, the offline retail sales of physical goods (retail sales agency Zero online retail sales of physical goods) was about 7.3 trillion yuan / + 1.7%, of which the offline retail sales of physical goods in March was about 2.2 trillion yuan / – 3.9%, and the growth rate turned negative from the growth of 4.3% from January to February. Since 22 years ago, the offline passenger flow has continued to weaken. According to Huike cloud, during the “double day” period (December 24, 21-january 3, 22), the average daily passenger flow of shopping centers across the country has decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, and during the Spring Festival in 22 years (January 31, 22-february 6, 22), the average daily passenger flow of shopping centers across the country has decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, compared with the Spring Festival in 21 years. According to the Ministry of culture and tourism, the total number of tourists in China decreased by 19.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 22 years, and the Qingming holiday is three days this year, The total number of Chinese tourists decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, which was 68% in the same period of 19 years.
In terms of categories, the consumption of optional categories is seriously affected by the epidemic, and the consumption of grain, oil and beverages is relatively compulsory, with a stable performance:
In terms of mandatory consumption, in March, the CPI of food fell by 1.5% year-on-year, the limited grain, oil and food increased by 12.5% year-on-year, and the limited beverage increased by 12.6% year-on-year, increasing by 4.6pct and 1.2pct respectively compared with January and February; In March, the growth rate of daily necessities above the limit turned negative, with a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, down 11.5pct from January to February.
In terms of optional consumption, the growth rate of typical consumption upgrading categories in March changed from positive to negative. Specifically, cosmetics Limited decreased by 6.3% year-on-year and increased by 7.0% from January to February; Jewelry consumption is mainly offline, which is greatly affected by the epidemic. It decreased by 17.9% year-on-year in March and increased by 19.5% from January to February; Textile and garment industry limited fell by 12.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 4.8% from January to February. In the first quarter of the year, the retail sales of commodities above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, of which cosmetics, textiles and clothing, gold, silver and jewelry increased by 1.8%, – 0.9% and 7.6% year-on-year respectively.
Investment suggestion: in terms of textile manufacturing, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Shenzhou International, the leader of textile manufacturing. In 2021, the company was affected by the epidemic in Southeast Asia, the appreciation of RMB and the rise of raw material costs. The revenue increased slightly by 3.5% to 23.87 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 34.0% to 3.37 billion yuan year-on-year. At present, the company’s capacity utilization has returned to the normal level, and the capacity is in short supply. The recruitment of new factories in Cambodia is progressing smoothly. The capacity is expected to increase by about 15% year-on-year in 22 years. In terms of brand clothing, the executive meeting of the State Council held on April 13 deployed policies and measures to promote consumption, help stabilize the economic fundamentals and ensure the improvement of people’s livelihood. The meeting pointed out that we should deal with the impact of the epidemic and promote the recovery and development of consumption. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Anta sports, Li Ning and Tebu, the local sports clothing leaders. Anta sports and Tebu international have released 22q1 terminal retail flow data. Both of them have achieved relatively stable and high-quality growth under the condition of high base in the same period last year. Specifically, Anta brand’s 22q1 water increased by double digits year-on-year (21q1 increased by 40% – 45%), of which the terminal water increased by more than 20% from January to February, and the number of units in the national offline water decreased in March; The running water of Tebu brand 22q1 increased by 30-35% year-on-year (about 55% year-on-year in 21q1). Compared with the overall market of the garment industry, local sportswear showed strong resilience under the epidemic. In terms of track segmentation, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Bosideng, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) .
Risk warning: the duration of the epidemic in China is too long; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The epidemic situation in Southeast Asia may affect the production capacity release of textile manufacturing industry; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
