"In 2021, we watched the price of Baijiu rise all the way." A cigarette and liquor vendor Li Ming China (first name) told the China Securities Journal reporter on the first ring road in Chengdu. "The high-end Baijiu sold well, because the person who drinks it will still drink."
Cigarette and liquor vendor and Baijiu store in Chengdu have recently visited a number of cigarette hotels and liquor stores in China. After a round of price rises at the end of 2021, the terminal price of Pu five and national cellar 1573 has been standing at 1000 yuan / bottle price, but there is still a certain distance from the terminal guidance price of Pu five and 1573 of the national cellar 1573 yuan.
Brokerage channel research shows that at present, the price of famous wines has generally stabilized, and the inventory is relatively low. Cai Xuefei, a liquor industry analyst and general manager of China general merchandise, told China Securities Journal: "with the coming of Spring Festival, market demand is still strong. The new round of price increases reflects the concentration of liquor in Baijiu Spring Festival.
if there is a discount on the price
At the end of 2021, liquor enterprises represented by Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) successively announced price increases for core large single products.
"In the middle of December 2021, the price of Guojiao 1573 is 980 yuan / bottle. Now it costs 1050 yuan / bottle. The price of puwu is 1080 yuan / bottle." Wang Shuang (a pseudonym), owner of a tobacco Hotel on Yushuang road in Chengdu, said.
In Li Ming's cigarette hotel, the price of Guojiao 1573 is 1198 yuan / bottle. However, Li Ming said: "you can give a discount of 20 yuan on the basis of the original price. If you take a case, the lowest price of Guojiao 1573 can be 1100 yuan / bottle. The lowest price of puwuyi case can be 1150 yuan / bottle."
The reporter of China Securities Journal called the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) store in Chengdu as a consumer. The salesperson of the store said: "the lowest price can be 1150 yuan / bottle. Although the official guide price is 1399 yuan / bottle, we will give a discount if we can offer a discount."
A Baijiu dealer said: "the price increase of famous liquor will not affect the terminal, because the price increase is small. Under the current Baijiu market, the better brand is better."
Cai Xuefei said: "Baijiu consumption is concentrated on some star products with brand and quality. From the perspective of the whole market, most of the non famous liquor actually sell rather indifferently."
Du Meng has the final say that "Baijiu will eventually return to the essence of consumption." if the Baijiu is rising again, will the market accept the high price during the Spring Festival? Of course, consumers should have the final say.
the impact of peak consumption season is weakened
During the interview with the reporter of China Securities Journal, the business of several tobacco hotels was cold and few people paid attention to them. Li Ming said: "the price of famous liquor such as PU five and national cellar 1573 is still selling well, but affected by the epidemic, the sales of Baijiu before the Spring Festival is really not as good as before. In previous years, the restaurant next door has been full of tourists. Many customers think that the liquor sold in the restaurant is expensive and will buy drinks in our shop. But now, the restaurant business is cold and there are several tables for lunch at noon."
Under the epidemic situation, the competition is more intense. Wang Shuang said: "more and more people are entering the Baijiu industry. The price is very transparent. We can earn a little bit."
The impact of Baijiu selling season is weakening. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, occupation investor Cheng Yu believes that this is also related to the trend of strong investment in high-grade baijiu. "Baijiu Baijiu" has become a few of the current, and there are still stable investment expectations, so investment demand accounts for a large part of the demand for high-grade liquor. Since it is investment demand, there is no fluctuation in consumption time, so holiday consumption is plain, because traditional festivals are consumer demand.
In fact, the social inventory of famous wines has been low since 2021. Zeng Congqin, general manager of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group and chairman of the joint stock company, said in December 2021 that the overall supply of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is tight and resources are scarce. China Securities Journal reporter and insiders also learned that the current social inventory of Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) is at a historical low.
There are 157 bottles of Xijiao in GuoPu and 6013} in Chengdu. The salesperson of the above Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) exclusive store said that now puwu's goods are sold short.
Wang Meiting, researcher of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, said: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu is more special because liquor is easier to store. Besides a few unsalable periods, the cooperation between liquor dealers and Baijiu manufacturers is mostly prepaid. This is because the liquor market is relatively dull since 2021, and dealers at all levels of the middle reaches are unwilling to make advance payments and increase their inventory. On the other hand, there is still a price expectation in the market, so that they include Mao. Taiwan's Baijiu will be hoarded by consumers.
Baijiu is still the best track .
For Baijiu market in 2022, there are different voices in the market.
The general tone of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in 2022 is to keep making progress while maintaining stability, continue to deepen the supply side structural reform, and adhere to the improvement of high-quality market share as the core. Ceng Congqin said that Baijiu is still the best track in the industry. Although Baijiu industry has entered the adjustment period of deep transformation, there has been no fundamental change in the development pattern of long term lack of good wine. With the implementation of a series of supportive policies to promote the development of Sichuan Baijiu industry and the continuous growth of the consumer market, the development opportunities of Baijiu industry will be bigger and bigger.
Cai Xuefei believes that the Baijiu market will be further differentiated in 2022. "The growth of national famous liquor has not changed, and it is still the excellent brand appeal, quality foundation and scale effect of the enterprise itself. At present, the whole Baijiu consumption has shifted from incremental market to stock market squeeze competition. With the channel of famous liquor and the plundering of consumer resources, many low price oriented small and medium sized liquor enterprises in 2022 may be in the situation. Further deterioration. "
Cheng Yu believes that since 2022, Baijiu demand structure has not changed, and is still supported by investment demand. However, the industry that benefited from inflation in 2022 may be affected by the interest rate increase and contraction of the major central banks, and the profits will decline. The supply and demand of high-grade Baijiu will probably change. In the medium and long term, we should not be too optimistic.
"Baijiu manufacturers must not" intoxicated "themselves, so that consumers\' loyalty to products and brands will be consumed in a price increase. Du Meng reminds me.
(source: China Securities Journal)
