\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 566 Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) )
Core view
The performance was in line with expectations, and the volume of pediatric drugs + second-line varieties accelerated. In 2021, the company realized operating revenue of 7.631 billion yuan (+ 23.77%), net profit attributable to parent company of 1.719 billion yuan (+ 34.60%), net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company of 1.557 billion yuan (+ 26.15%).
In 2020, affected by covid-19 pneumonia, the number of outpatient clinics in hospitals, including pediatrics, decreased, and the company’s operating performance declined; In 2021, the epidemic situation will be effectively controlled, isolation measures will be gradually lifted, medical institutions will gradually return to normal operation, and adverse effects will be gradually eliminated. According to the product segment, the revenue of pediatric products was 1.701 billion yuan (+ 63.85%), mainly due to the increase in the sales revenue of children’s soy sauce; The revenue of heat clearing and detoxification products was 2.422 billion yuan (+ 13.16%), and Pudilan regained its growth after being affected by the introduction of local medical insurance; The operating revenue of digestive products was 1.804 billion yuan (+ 6.79%); The revenue of respiratory products was 481 million yuan (+ 72.01%), mainly from the increase in the sales revenue of Huanglong Zhike granules and Sanao tablets. On the cost side, the R & D cost reached 523 million yuan (+ 114.74%), and the promotion of pipeline under research continued to be accelerated; The sales expense rate is basically the same as that in previous years. The product structure has been continuously optimized, and the second-line varieties have contributed new kinetic energy. With the gradual elimination of the impact of Pudilan’s withdrawal from provincial medical insurance, the sales proportion of Pudilan has gradually decreased and stabilized. The company’s product structure has changed from single product dominance to Pudilan + rabeprazole sodium + children’s soy sauce, and the product structure has been continuously optimized. Benefiting from the policy’s preference for pediatric medication and the continuous upgrading of pediatric soy warping products to sucrose free version and orange flavor version, pediatric medication will become the key pillar of the company’s performance in the future; In addition, the second-line varieties represented by Jianweixiaoshi oral liquid, Huanglong Zhike granule and protein iron succinate oral solution have a rapid volume, contributing new growth momentum to the company’s performance.
Product strength and channel strength complement each other, and long-acting growth hormone brings new growth. In November 11, 2021, the company signed an agreement with Tian Tian biology to obtain a long-term TJ101 (human rights growth hormone) interest in Chinese mainland (currently in clinical III phase). Long acting growth hormone can enhance patient compliance and improve treatment effect, which is the main research and development trend in the future. The company has strong brand influence and product promotion ability in the pediatric market, with a sales team of more than 3000 people, covering more than 23000 hospital terminals. After the long-acting growth hormone products are listed, it is expected to quickly explore the market with the help of the company’s channel advantages, gradually increase the volume, and become a new performance growth point of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is expected that the company’s main varieties Pudilan and rabeprazole sodium will maintain a steady growth rate, and the growth rate of children’s fermented soybean + second-line varieties will continue to be high. We expect the company’s net profit from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 1.916/22.04/2.565 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.42% / 15.05% / 16.40%, corresponding EPS of RMB 2.16/2.48/2.89 respectively, and corresponding PE of 10.87/9.45/8.12 times respectively, giving the investment rating of “buy”.
Risk tips: policy risks such as medical insurance negotiation; The R & D and sales of long-acting production hormones are less than expected; The impact of the epidemic on hospital outpatient service.
