\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 691 Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In the past 21 years, the company achieved an operating revenue of 18.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 234.8%; Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 5.18 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 5.5% and a month on month increase of + 25.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 07 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 100.9% and a month on month increase of - 107.1%.
Comments:
The price rise of main products helped improve performance, and asset optimization and reorganization reduced the operating burden: affected by multiple factors such as the recovery after the global economic epidemic, China's supply side reform and market supply and demand in 2021, the prosperity of China's chemical industry was high. In 2021, the average sales prices of the company's main products urea, polyvinyl chloride, propylene, caustic soda, phosphorus trichloride and hydrogen peroxide were + 59.5%, + 38.3%, + 16.3%, + 39.1%, + 64.6% and + 3.3% respectively year-on-year. The market price of the company's main chemical products rose sharply year-on-year, and the revenue was effectively guaranteed. In 2021, the company continued to promote asset optimization and reorganization, disposed of subsidiaries with backward technology, poor development prospects and serious losses, and transferred 100% equity of Fengxi group, 100% equity of Zhengyuan group, 54.6% equity of Shenzhou chemical and 100% equity of Shouyang chemical, which greatly reduced the company's operation burden and significantly increased its net profit year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2021, affected by the national "double limit" policy, the production and sales of the company's main products fell year-on-year. At the same time, the prices of the company's main raw materials such as coal, industrial salt and electricity rose sharply, which compressed the enterprise's profit space to a certain extent, resulting in the decline of the company's Q4 performance year-on-year and month on month.
Relying on the relevant production capacity and technical advantages, the layout of the hydrogen energy industry chain has broad prospects: the company currently has subsidiaries Zhengyuan hydrogen energy and Yangxiong hydrogen energy in the field of hydrogen energy, as well as the joint venture with Shenzhen hydrogen Xiong heavy Drive Technology Co., Ltd. hydrogen Xiong Shuangyang. Among them, Zhengyuan hydrogen energy has its own isothermal transformation process and energy-saving Jr low-pressure ammonia synthesis process. It is the only gas center in Cangzhou Lingang Economic and Technological Development Zone, and has the ability to supply oxygen, carbon monoxide, hydrogen and water vapor to the park. After the completion of Zhengyuan hydrogen energy coal clean and efficient comprehensive utilization project, its annual output of 648 million cubic meters of hydrogen resources is expected to become the largest hydrogen source supplier of Cangzhou Lingang Economic and Technological Development Zone. Relying on its rich hydrogen production capacity and technical advantages, the company cooperates with other upstream and downstream enterprises in the hydrogen energy industry to lay out new businesses in hydrogen purification, hydrogenation station construction, hydrogen supply and other aspects, so as to create new profit growth points. At present, the company mainly has the capacity of 2.32 million tons of urea, 300000 tons of PVC, 300000 tons of olefins, 400000 tons of caustic soda, 250000 tons of hydrogen peroxide and 400000 tons of methanol. In addition, there are 520000 tons of urea products under construction, which is expected to be completed in June 2024.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the European natural gas crisis has limited the start-up of foreign chemical fertilizer enterprises, tightened the supply of international chemical fertilizer market, and it may be difficult to alleviate the mismatch between supply and demand in the short term, which is conducive to the high price operation of agrochemical products. We continue to be optimistic about the agrochemical sector, maintain the company's profit forecast for 20222023, and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit from 20222024 will be RMB 555 / 611 / 671 million respectively, equivalent to EPS of RMB 0.23/0.26/0.28 respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; The new project is put into operation less than expected; The product price fluctuates greatly.
