\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 256 Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited(688256) )
Performance review
Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited(688256) announced on April 15 that the expected operating revenue in 2021 was 721 million, an increase of 57% year-on-year, and the net loss attributable to the parent was 825 million, nearly double the net loss of 435 million in 2020, deducting the net loss not attributable to the parent of 1.11 billion and 659 million in 2020.
Commentary
The growth momentum of the company's revenue in 2021 mainly comes from Siyuan 220 edge AI chips and acceleration cards. Its revenue accounted for 5% in 2020 and 24% in 2021. The revenue increased by 741% year-on-year. The 40% year-on-year growth of intelligent cluster system also made a considerable contribution, mainly due to the successful bid winning of the project of Kunshan Intelligent Computing Center (accounting for 62.5% of the revenue in Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited(688256) 2021). However, the cloud chip, accelerator card and whole machine training business declined slightly in 2021. We believe that it is mainly because 7Nm Siyuan 370 chip and mlu370-s4 / X4 / X8 have not been shipped in large quantities and are only sold in small quantities.
The company's comprehensive gross profit margin is 62.4%, slightly lower than 65.4% in 2020. It is mainly due to the decline of the gross profit margin of cloud and edge computing AI chips and acceleration cards, from 76.3% / 49.0% in 2020 to 58.5% / 41.3% in 2021. The decline of the gross profit margin of cloud product line is mainly due to the increase of the specific weight of the training machine, which is equipped with server hardware, higher unit cost and lower gross profit margin than chips and acceleration cards. In terms of quarter, due to the revenue recognition of intelligent cluster system (70.6%) with high gross profit margin in the fourth quarter, the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter significantly rebounded to 67.6%, higher than 47.1% in the third quarter and 65.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020.
In order to continuously invest in R & D, launch new products, compete and attract employees, the company's R & D expenses and management expenses continue to increase significantly, and the operating expense rate increases from 212% in 2020 to 220% in 2021. The increase of R & D expenses is due to the continuous improvement of the number and average salary of R & D personnel and the increase of depreciation and amortization expenses of IP and EDA tool procurement. The increase in administrative expenses is due to the implementation of the equity incentive plan.
Investment advice
We expect the net profit of the company to be -905 / - 858 / - 785 million yuan in 22-24 years, giving the company a target price of 64 yuan and a market value of 25.65 billion yuan in the next 6-12 months, which is equivalent to 15xps in 2024 and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
High valuation risk; Risk reduction of terminal AI processor IP month; Risk of intelligent computing cluster system; Risks of horizontal competition; Risk of negative cash flow.
