\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event: the company issued the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.41 billion, an increase of 25.1% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.03 billion yuan, an increase of 29.5% at the same time. The performance was in line with the performance forecast data, and the advance collection rose sharply month on month. In a single quarter, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 1.07 billion yuan, an increase of 15.8%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 330 million yuan, an increase of 30.4%, a cash flow from operating activities of 2.58 billion yuan, an increase of 48.5%, contract liabilities of 2.07 billion yuan, an increase of 88.6%, and a good cash flow situation. At the same time, the company’s minimum revenue target of 7.5 billion yuan in 2022 (with an increase of 17.0%) and strive for 8 billion yuan (with an increase of 24.8%); The net profit is guaranteed to be 2.25 billion yuan (with an increase of 10.8%) and strive to be 2.35 billion yuan (with an increase of 15.8%).
The proportion of special class A + is increased, and the two wheel drive inside and outside the province. In terms of products, the company’s special a + products / special a products achieved a revenue of 4.17 billion yuan / 1.71 billion yuan, an increase of 35.7/14.1% at the same time. Special a + products accounted for 65.1%, an increase of 4.7pct year-on-year, and the product matrix continued to be optimized. In terms of regions, Huai’an and Nanjing regions grew steadily, and the product structure continued to improve; Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu grew rapidly, and the revenue increased by 32.5/32.9% at the same time; In the market outside the province, the company realized an income of 450 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 36.1% at the same time, and the nationwide layout was accelerated. In addition, in 2021, the company net increased 103 dealers, including 15 in the province to cultivate the high-end market. The net increase of 88 inside and outside the province and the high number of dealers outside the province reflect the company’s high attention to national development.
The product structure drives the improvement of profitability. In terms of gross profit margin, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 74.6%, with an increase of 3.5pcts, of which Q4 gross profit margin increased significantly to 83.7%, mainly due to the obvious trend of high-end products, the potential of Guoyuan Sikai in the southern Jiangsu market, the rapid growth of V series and the continuous optimization of product structure. In terms of expense rate, the annual sales / management fee of the company was 15.1/4.0% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.0pct/0.4pct respectively. Meanwhile, in 2021, the net investment income was 120 million yuan, accounting for 4.5% of the operating profit. Excluding the impact of investment income, the net profit of the company was 1.94 billion yuan, an increase of 44.2% and the net interest rate was 31.7%, an increase of 1.1pct year-on-year.
The product structure has been continuously optimized, and the market in the province has been continuously cultivated. 2022 is the year when the company’s “14th five year plan” strategic plan is advanced in depth, and it is also the year when the company can achieve the goal of revenue exceeding 10 billion. According to the market situation and business performance in 2021, the company has set a revenue target of 7.5 billion yuan in 2022 and strive for 8 billion yuan; The net profit target is 2.25 billion yuan and strive for 2.35 billion yuan. On the product side, in 2021, the company raised the price of Guoyuan Sikai and launched new products. According to our visit to Jiangsu market during the Spring Festival, Sikai and folio enjoyed strong sales in the province, consolidating the basic market of the company. In addition, the price rise of V series is obvious. V9 builds the brand image, V6 makes strategic reserves, and V3 tactics are large-scale. It undertakes the upgrading of consumption in the province, providing new increment for the company’s revenue. On the market side, the mainstream price belt in Jiangsu Province is moving towards 500 yuan, which has great market potential. The double leaders of Jiangsu wine are expected to compete and cooperate for development. Outside the province, the Yangtze River Delta is the core to promote the process of nationalization, make point breakthroughs and improve the expansion efficiency outside the province. Looking forward to the future, with the regional expansion of the company’s main products and the iterative upgrading of high-end V series, we are optimistic that the company’s “14th five year plan” strategic plan will be realized as scheduled.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 will be 2.36/2.85 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5/20.6% at the same time. After introducing the prediction that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 3.32 billion yuan, the current share price corresponds to 23 / 19 / 17 times of PE in 20222024. The company’s product structure is relatively good and its market share in the province continues to increase. We are optimistic about the development space of main products, give 30 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 56 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the market competition in the province is intensifying; The promotion of high-end products is less than expected; Epidemic affected terminal movable pin
