\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 688 Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) )
The performance slightly exceeded expectations and the growth was realized
In 21 years, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit were 960 million / 280 million, yoy + 48.8% / + 49.4% / 94.1%, and revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit were 281 million / 106 million / 82 million, yoy + 60.2% / 169.3% / 134.0% respectively. The performance slightly exceeded expectations, mainly benefiting from the strong demand in the downstream, and the high growth of high-purity quartz sand / semiconductor quartz materials for photovoltaic. On April 6, the company announced that it had begun to resume work and production in an orderly manner, and we expect it to be fully restored by the end of April. We judged that the epidemic had an impact on the company's production and operation in the first quarter for more than 20 days. The company may rush to make up for the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter in the second quarter and the second half of the year.
The volume and price of high-purity quartz sand rise simultaneously and enter the fast lane of high growth
During the reporting period, the revenue of high-purity quartz sand business reached 300 million, yoy + 111%. During the reporting period, the external sales volume was 14000 tons, yoy + 93.4%. The company's annual output of 20000 tons of high-purity quartz sand project has been fully completed and is expected to gradually release the output. In addition, it announced on January 4 that it plans to acquire Qiangbang shares, which is also expected to expand the production capacity of high-purity quartz sand. The construction of the project with an annual output of 15000 tons is accelerated, and we expect it to be put into operation in the middle of the 23rd year. With the release of new production capacity, sales volume is expected to continue to maintain high growth. During the reporting period, the average price per ton was 21500 yuan, yoy + 9.1%, which mainly benefited from the tight supply and demand of the industry and the rise of the price. We expect that the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to remain tight in 22 years. At the same time, with the increase of the proportion of the company's inner sand sales, the average price still has room to improve. During the reporting period, the cost per ton was 9300 yuan, yoy-10.6%, mainly due to cost dilution caused by scale effect. Considering the rising cost of raw materials and the new production line is still in the climbing period, it is not ruled out that the cost side increased slightly in 22 years, but it is controllable as a whole. Under the joint influence of rising average price / falling cost, the gross profit rate of high-purity quartz sand during the reporting period was 56.7%, up 9.6pct year-on-year, and the high gross profit rate is expected to continue.
Semiconductor quartz materials are expected to continue in large quantities, and the product structure is expected to be optimized
During the reporting period, the revenue of optical fiber semiconductor business was 300 million, yoy + 46.4%, of which the revenue of semiconductor quartz material was 150 million, yoy + 101.0%. The company actively promotes the certification of semiconductor equipment manufacturers outside China. At present, it has passed the certification in the field of Tel diffusion and etching, as well as the certification in Lam etching. The certification of Applied Materials in the United States has also continued to make phased progress, and the certification of other semiconductor manufacturers in Japan and abroad is also in rapid progress. With the increasing number of certified enterprises, the company's semiconductor orders are expected to continue to increase. In order to meet the downstream demand, the company has accelerated the construction of production capacity. At present, the 1800 T / a quartz mound project has been completed and put into operation. We expect that the 6000 T / a electronic grade quartz product project is expected to reach production in October 2022. The company is one of the few raw material suppliers that have passed the Tel high temperature diffusion certification in the world. We judge that high temperature products account for more than 50% of the company's semiconductor quartz material product structure, and the proportion is expected to continue to increase. High temperature products have higher barriers to entry / better competition pattern and relatively higher price / gross profit margin, which is expected to drive the increase of average price / gross profit margin of semiconductor quartz materials.
The electric light source business continued to develop emerging markets and fields and maintained steady growth
During the reporting period, the revenue of electric light source business reached 320 million, yoy + 15.3%, maintaining steady growth. In recent years, special light sources are still developing in depth. The market demand of high-end light source quartz materials, such as agricultural plant growth lamps, theater lights, laser lamps, semiconductor light cleaning lamps and so on, is still increasing. The company actively developed emerging markets and fields, optimized the product structure and boosted the gross profit margin. During the reporting period, the gross profit margin of electric light source business was 43.6%, up 3.6pct year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: we raised the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 / 24 to 569 / 906 / 1124 million (the original forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 was 533 / 726 million), mainly considering that the company accelerated the production capacity construction of high-purity quartz sand, increased the sales volume assumption of pure quartz sand, and increased the semiconductor sales volume / average price assumption in consideration of the continuous volume of semiconductor quartz materials / product structure optimization of the company. The adjusted profit forecast corresponds to 32 / 20 / 16 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected; The launch of new production capacity is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
