\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 567 Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) )
Events
Event 1: on April 15, the company released its annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 33.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.7%; Among them, 4q achieved a revenue of 8.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 47.5%, which was lower than the market expectation.
Event 2: on April 15, the company announced that it plans to invest in the construction of Anhui Suzhou paper project. The first phase plans to have a capacity of 700000 T / a hot grinding fiber and 1.8 million T / a packaging paper, with a total investment of about 11.4 billion yuan.
Business analysis
Weak demand + the impact of the industrial chain destocking, the shipment volume of 4q box paperboard narrowed year-on-year / month on month, and the packaging growth was better. 1) Base paper: the sales volume of 21a base paper is 5.82 million tons (+ 12.5%), and the average price is 3644 yuan / ton; Among them, the sales volume of 4q is 1.49 million tons (year-on-year - 9%, month on month - 2%), and the average price is 4274 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 18%, month on month + 7.8%). 2) Packaging: the sales volume of 21a packaging carton is 202000 square meters (+ 37.6%), and the average price is 3.6 yuan / square meter (+ 12.7%), of which the sales volume of 4q is 570 million square meters (+ 33.8%), and the average price is 3.87 yuan / square meter (+ 18.1%).
The rising cost of raw materials & energy has put pressure on profitability and optimized cost control. The gross profit margin of 21a is 12.2% (- 4.6pct), of which the gross profit margin of 4q is 11.4% (year-on-year - 5pct, month on month + 1.8pct). The main reasons are as follows: 1) the price of waste paper at home and abroad is rising, of which the average price of 4q China's waste yellow paperboard is + 355 yuan / ton year-on-year and + 40 yuan / ton month on month. The weak downstream demand leads to poor cost transmission; 2) The cost of energy consumption goes up. 21a sales / Management & R & D / financial expense ratio was - 0.3 / + 0.14 / - 1PCT to 1.1% / 6.8% / 2.1% year-on-year, of which 4q was + 0.11/1.59 / - 1.22pct to 1.3% / 7.5% / 2.2% year-on-year, and 4q net interest rate was 2.3% (year-on-year - 2.9pct).
Wait for demand improvement in the short term, orderly expansion of production capacity in the medium term, and consolidate the market position. In the short term, the corrugated box paper industry has entered the off-season, and the paper price has decreased in a narrow range. At present, the average price of box board / corrugated / national waste ton is - 30 / - 70 / - 16 yuan compared with the end of December, but the easing of import pressure drives the improvement of supply and demand, waiting for the peak season to bring ton profit repair. In the medium term, the company actively develops paper production capacity. The paper projects of 1 million tons in Guangdong and 770000 tons in Zhejiang are expected to be put into operation in 2022. The company's newly announced one million ton pulp and paper project in Suzhou, Anhui Province has obtained the EIA approval, and 900000 tons of corrugated paper capacity has been put into the first stage, which is expected to further optimize the product portfolio and enhance the market viscosity.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
Combined with the price trend of carton board and the judgment of the future supply and demand pattern of the industry, we lowered the EPS in 22-23 years to 0.39 and 0.43 yuan respectively, with a reduction rate of 21% / 23%. It is expected that the EPS in 24 years will be 0.48 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 8, 7 and 6 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk that the downstream demand is less than expected; The risk of excessive expansion of the industry; The risk of high proportion of equity pledge; Goodwill impairment risk
