\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 415 Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) )
Event: on the evening of April 15, 2022, the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 81.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.51%. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 16.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%.
In 2021, PBG and EBG businesses achieved steady growth, SMBG grew rapidly, and the prosperity of AI landing continued to be verified. In the annual report of 2021, the company adjusted the caliber of revenue disclosure, so that the company’s three BGS, overseas business and innovation business no longer intersect with each other. After adjustment, the growth rate of PBG business of the company reached 19.85%, EBG business increased by 12.94% and SMBG increased by 46.49% year-on-year in 2021, which continued to verify the prosperity of AI industry.
The innovative business has nearly doubled, and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , automotive electronics, storage and other businesses have entered a period of high income growth. In 2021, the company’s innovative business grew by 98.93% year-on-year, nearly doubled, and entered the harvest period. Among them, 1) Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) business increased by 103.26% year-on-year. In 2021, the company has formed four new hardware product series and released the first generation of low code application development platform. 2) The automotive electronics business increased by 118.92% year-on-year. In 2021, the front loading business of passenger cars continued to double, and the number of new fixed-point projects doubled. Among them, the expected sales of new contracts quadrupled compared with the end of 2020. The automatic parking system has won the fixed-point of more than 10 mass-produced models of head independent brands such as great wall, Geely and Chang’an. 3) The storage business increased by 74.94% year-on-year, and the number of customers increased steadily and continuously. The total number of customers exceeded 3000 in 2021.
Facing the macroeconomic pressure, the revenue growth rate in 2022q1 is still slightly higher than that expected by supermarkets, reflecting the company’s steady endogenous growth ability. In 2022q1, the macro economy is facing certain downward pressure, while the company’s EBG business is oriented to thousands of industries and PBG business is oriented to government departments, so it is difficult to avoid the impact of macro economy. It is under this pressure that the company’s revenue in 2022q1 is still slightly higher than the expected growth rate of supermarkets, and the profit growth rate is in line with the expectation, which once again verifies the company’s steady endogenous growth power. We believe that the market’s concern about the macro economy has been basically reflected in the stock price, and the risk has been fully released; The company has verified its growth ability and driving force with this performance. With the recent shift of market risk preference to undervalued varieties, it is expected to take the lead in benefiting.
Equity incentive maintains the income requirements of 15% CAGR and 20% roe, escorts the long-term steady growth, “decoupling” security, and the valuation system is expected to rise steadily. On October 7, 2021, the company issued a new phase of equity incentive, covering 23.36% of the number of employees. The core talents are bound through a five-year complete unlocking cycle. The conditions of this restricted stock incentive plan are basically consistent with those of the company’s 2018 restricted stock incentive plan (CAGR is adjusted from 20% to 15%), which also shows the consistent and steady style of the company’s management in the long-term development. As the company expands its product portfolio through multi-dimensional sensing technology along the wavelength of the spectrum, we believe that the innovative business is expected to rebuild a Haikang. At the same time, the continuous deepening of EBG business will continue to bring the market stereotype of the company and the traditional security hardware company and the comprehensive “decoupling” of the valuation system.
Maintain the “buy” rating. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 97.502 billion yuan, 114883 billion yuan and 136733 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 20.008 billion yuan, 23.712 billion yuan and 28.181 billion yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: China’s demand uncertainty; Trade relationship disturbance risk; Risk of price rise of raw materials; The risk that AI promotion is not as expected; Risk of innovation business incubation falling short of expectations
