\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 539 Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) )
Event: on April 14, 2022, Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) released the annual report of 2021: the operating revenue was 14.898 billion yuan, an increase of 62.47% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.06%; The weighted average return on net assets was 31.59%, with a year-on-year increase of 17.01 percentage points. The gross profit margin of sales was 18.54%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.74 percentage points; The net profit margin of sales was 8.30%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.76 percentage points. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 4.806 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 104.47% and a month on month increase of 19.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 451 million yuan, an increase of 252.36% year-on-year and 19.63% month on month; The weighted average return on net assets was 10.64%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.89 percentage points and a month on month increase of 0.79 percentage points. The gross profit margin of sales was 16.01%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85 percentage points and a month on month decrease of 5.18 percentage points; The net profit margin of sales was 9.32%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.60 percentage points and a month on month decrease of 0.12 percentage points. At the same time, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 450480 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 149.15% – 165.76%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 436 million yuan to 466 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 121.93% – 137.20%.
Comments:
The prosperity of main products increased, and the revenue and profit reached a record high
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 14.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.06%. In 2021, the sales and revenue of the company’s compound fertilizer products increased significantly. The sales volume of compound fertilizer was 2.8739 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.41%, and the sales revenue was 6.227 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.87%; Among them, the sales volume of conventional compound fertilizer was 1.6025 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.75%, and the sales revenue was 3.362 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.01%; The sales volume of new compound fertilizer was 1.2713 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.13%, and the sales revenue was 2.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.13%. Benefiting from the price increase of soda ash, yellow phosphorus and other products, the company’s revenue and gross profit of Lianhe alkali and phosphorus chemical products have increased significantly. The sales volume of Lianhe alkali is 769000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.20%. The sales revenue is 1.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.21%, and the gross profit margin is 15.48%, a year-on-year increase of 5.70 percentage points; The sales volume of phosphorus chemical products was 71000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.92%, the revenue was 1.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.20%, and the gross profit margin was 39.97%, a year-on-year increase of 15.92 percentage points.
In Q4 of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 451 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 252.36% and a month on month increase of 19.63%. Revenue growth mainly benefited from the rapid rise in the price of yellow phosphorus. In 2021, the market price of Q4 yellow phosphorus repeatedly hit an all-time high. The company grabbed the favorable market situation, the yellow phosphorus production unit realized full load continuous operation, the 60000 ton capacity was fully released, and the operation index reached a new level. three
Continuously integrate upstream and downstream resources, and further highlight the advantages of integrated industry
In 2021, affected by the international epidemic situation and the shift of monetary policies of major economies, the price of international bulk commodities fluctuated greatly. The prices of the company’s main raw materials such as sulfur, phosphate rock and coal continued to rise, and the supply was obviously insufficient. The company has rich and high-quality phosphate rock, salt mine and other resources, which provides strong support for resource supply and cost control, and the extension and development of industrial chain. The company owns the phosphate ore exploration right in niuniuzhai north mining area, Leibo County, Sichuan Province. The phosphate ore in the eastern section has identified 181 million tons of ore resource reserves and is going through the relevant procedures of “conversion of exploration right to mining right”. At present, the company has completed the relevant procedures for the delimitation of mining area and is actively promoting the new registration procedures for mining. The mining right license can be obtained only after completing the relevant procedures. Xiaogan Guangyan Huayuan, the holding subsidiary of the company, owns the independent salt mine of “salt sea paste capital” at 30 degrees north latitude, with well salt reserves of 250 million tons. At the same time, the company implemented the synthetic ammonia technical transformation project to further reduce the cost of synthetic ammonia, strengthen the supply capacity of synthetic ammonia and exaggerate the cost advantage of the company. The company has a complete industrial chain of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer except urea. The main raw materials and packaging materials are basically self-sufficient. Under the condition of continuous rise of raw materials and tight supply, the company’s cost advantage and industry pricing power are further highlighted.
We will continue to promote the layout of new energy sources and give full play to the synergy between phosphorus chemical industry and the main business of compound fertilizer
Seizing the historic opportunity of new energy development, relying on the rich reserves of phosphate rock resources, integrated industrial supporting facilities and the accumulation of chemical fertilizer for many years, the company has arranged the production capacity of iron phosphate and related upstream raw materials and entered the new energy materials track. The company plans to build 350000 tons of battery grade iron phosphate and supporting projects such as 300000 tons of wet process phosphoric acid (converted into pure), 300000 tons of refined phosphoric acid, 1.5 million tons of phosphate ore beneficiation, 1 million tons of sulfur to sulfuric acid, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of slow and controlled release compound fertilizer, 1 million tons of phosphogypsum comprehensive utilization and 20MW waste heat power generation in Songzi; It is planned to build 100000 tons of battery grade iron phosphate, 1 million tons of beneficiation, 200000 tons of wet process phosphoric acid (converted into 100% P2O5), 100000 tons of refined phosphoric acid (85% H3PO4), 800000 tons of sulfur to sulfuric acid, 800000 tons of slow and controlled release compound fertilizer and 1 million tons of phosphogypsum in Yicheng. At present, the 350000 ton iron phosphate related project in Songzi has completed the procedures of project filing, energy assessment, safety assessment and environmental assessment, and promoted the project construction as planned, which will be completed and put into operation in 2023; Yicheng 100000 ton iron phosphate related projects are applying for safety assessment, environmental assessment and other procedures. The implementation of the two projects will give full play to the synergy between phosphorus chemical industry and the main business of compound fertilizer, which is not only conducive to strengthening the main business of compound fertilizer and expanding the scale of compound fertilizer industry, but also conducive to the company to grasp the development opportunity of iron phosphate industry, accelerate the formation of a complete industrial chain of “phosphate rock phosphoric acid iron phosphate”, expand the scale of the company’s phosphorus chemical industry and enrich phosphorus chemical products, and further consolidate the competitive advantage of the company’s industrial chain.
The price of fertilizer products remained high, and the company’s performance continued to grow in the first quarter
Since the first quarter of 2022, the prices of monoammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer have continued to rise; Soda ash and yellow phosphorus prices stopped falling and rebounded. Benefiting from the rise in product prices and the strong demand for fertilizer in the peak spring farming season, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 450480 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 149.15% – 165.76%. According to wind data, on April 14, 2022, the price of monoammonium phosphate was 3600 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.57% compared with the beginning of the year; The price of sulfur based compound fertilizer was 3600 yuan / ton, an increase of 15.76% compared with the beginning of the year; The price of chlorine based compound fertilizer was 3300 yuan / ton, an increase of 15.79% compared with the beginning of the year; The price of soda ash is 2600 yuan / ton, 15.56% compared with the beginning of the year; The price of yellow phosphorus was 36382 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.85% compared with the beginning of the year. Affected by the dual carbon policy and dual control of energy consumption, the new capacity of monoammonium phosphate and yellow phosphorus will be limited in the future. At the same time, the prosperity of agriculture has increased, the price of grain has risen, and the prices of phosphate fertilizer and compound fertilizer are at an all-time high. It is expected that in the future, the prices of the company’s main products will remain high and volatile, and the company’s profitability will also remain at a high level.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be RMB 1.613 billion, RMB 2.212 billion and RMB 2.928 billion respectively, EPS will be RMB 1.60, RMB 2.19 and RMB 2.90/share, corresponding to PE of 9.49, 6.92 and 5.23 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; The production capacity is lower than expected; Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials; Future demand decline; The progress of the new project is less than expected.
