\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 83 Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) )
The performance released steadily in 2021, and reached a new high in Q1 in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating
The company released the annual performance express in 2021, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.17 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 112.9%. At the same time, the company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.32-2.59 billion in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 155% – 185%. Benefiting from the rising international energy prices, strong demand and rising prices in China’s coal market, the company’s main coal products increased profits. According to the performance express, we adjusted the profit forecast without considering this asset injection. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.17/92.2/97.4 (the previous value of 4.61/62.3/63.8) billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 112.9% / 121.3% / 5.6%; EPS is 1.02/2.25/2.38 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price, PE is 14.8/6.7/6.3 times. In addition to the coal price is expected to remain high, the group’s asset injection is expected and is optimistic about the epitaxial growth potential. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The production and sales of coal are stable, and the rising price promotes the high growth of performance
In 2021, the company’s raw coal output was 35.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, the sales volume of commercial coal was 28.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, the revenue was 45.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, and the production and sales were stable as a whole. In 2021, the average market price of Shanxi main coking coal was 2080 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 75.5%. In the first quarter of 2022, the average price was 2418 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 90.7%. The sharp year-on-year rise in coal prices has led to a high increase in profits. The main business advantages of the company’s coal sector are prominent, and the performance in the first quarter of 2022 hit another record high.
The demand for coking coal is improved, the supply of power coal is constrained, and the high profit growth is expected to continue
Good demand drives the rising price of coking coal: coking coal is priced by the market and is less affected by policies. It is expected to continue the situation of short supply in the future. The supply side continues to be tight: the new capacity of coking coal is small, the guaranteed supply of power coal brings reduction, and the main coking coal in Australia is in short supply for a long time. The demand side is expected to improve: affected by the epidemic, the current real estate infrastructure has not improved, and the steel sales link is blocked. In the future, with the mitigation of the epidemic and the pull of the steady growth policy, the demand for coking coal is expected to improve and the price rise is expected to continue. The supply of power coal is constrained: the demand for power coal has entered the off-season. Affected by the epidemic, the industrial power consumption has not increased significantly. The EU has banned the import of Russian coal, further boosting the rise of overseas coal prices. China’s coal import decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the supply of power coal was tight. From May to June, with the mitigation of the epidemic and steady growth and the superposition of peak summer, there is still room for coal prices to rise.
The demand for asset securitization of the group boosts the growth of capacity extension
The group is accelerating the injection of coal assets. At the end of 2020, the company completed the acquisition of Shuiyu Coal Industry and Tenghui coal industry. In January 2022, the company plans to purchase 51% equity of Huajin coking coal held by coking coal group and 49% equity of Mingzhu coal held by Li Jinyu and Gao Jianping by issuing shares and paying cash. The total capacity of Huajin coking coal is 11.1 million tons / year. After the acquisition, the equity capacity of the company will increase by 5.13 million tons / year, with a capacity increase of 16%. In addition, the group’s coal assets still have the demand for securitization, and the company’s extension capacity growth can be expected.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Coal prices fell more than expected; The restructuring of the group was less than expected.
