\u3000\u30006 Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) 00009)
Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) released the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 3.728 billion yuan / – 13.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.711 billion yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 444 million yuan. In Q4, the income was 980 million yuan / + 13.3%, the net profit attributable to the parent was – 460 million yuan, and the loss narrowed by 69 million yuan year-on-year.
Key investment points
Business data: China’s passenger throughput recovered 81% in 2021
In 2021, the local epidemic in China lasted a long time. The passenger throughput and takeoff and landing sorties of the company were – 58% and – 32% respectively year-on-year in 19 years, and + 6% and + 7% respectively year-on-year in 20 years. Among them, there were 30.51 million Chinese tourists, a year-on-year increase of + 19%, returning to 81% in the same period of 19 years; The number of international and regional passengers was 1.68 million, 4.4% of the same period in 2019.
Revenue side: the revenue in 2021 was – 13% year-on-year, of which the tax-free rental income was 486 million / – 58%
In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 3.728 billion yuan / – 13.4%, of which Q4 revenue was 980 million yuan / + 13.3%.
Aviation business revenue: 1.85 billion yuan / + 7.2%. Among them, passenger related revenue was – 1.9% year-on-year, mainly because the volume of international passengers was – 65.5% year-on-year, and the charges of international passengers were higher than those of Chinese passengers. The revenue related to sorties was + 14% year-on-year, mainly due to the + 7% of takeoff and landing sorties.
Non aviation revenue: 1.88 billion yuan / – 27.2%. Among them, the tax-free rental income is 486 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 670 million yuan in 2020, and the corresponding “passenger flow coefficient area coefficient” is about 2.142, and the corresponding coefficient from March to December 2020 is 2.28; Other commercial catering revenue is 170 million yuan / + 52%, and other non aviation revenue is 1.22 billion yuan / – 6.8%.
Cost side: Q4 epidemic prevention expenditure decreased, and the annual financial expenses increased to 430 million yuan
In 2021, the operating cost was 6.08 billion yuan / – 7.9%, of which the labor cost was + 10.5% year-on-year, mainly because employees were exempted from social security last year. The financial expense was 430 million yuan, up from – 280 million yuan last year, which was mainly due to the company’s implementation of the new leasing standards and the issuance of ultra short-term financing bonds, which increased the interest expense of leasing liabilities and bond interest expense year-on-year.
Profit side: Q4 loss narrowed by 70 million yuan year-on-year, and the annual investment income was + 32% year-on-year
Investment income: in 2021, the company obtained an investment income of 777 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 187 million yuan. Among them, the investment income of Lianyi investment company was about 240 million yuan / + 224%, the investment income of oil company was about 190 million yuan / + 25%, the investment income of advertising was about 180 million yuan / – 10%, and the investment income of free trade fund was about 170 million yuan / – 9%. Net profit attributable to the parent company: in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.711 billion yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 444 million yuan, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 670 million yuan in tax-free income. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 460 million yuan, and the loss narrowed by 69 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of epidemic prevention expenditure.
Outlook: wait for the epidemic prevention at borders and exit
According to the company’s annual report, Pudong Airport is expected to achieve 400000 aircraft take-off and landing / + 14% and 40 million passenger throughput / + 24% in 2022. According to the 14th five year plan of civil aviation, 20232025 focuses on expanding the Chinese market and restoring the international market. Once the international passenger flow recovers, we believe that the company’s tax-free income is expected to increase significantly, the tax-free flexibility is also expected to recover, and the company’s bargaining power will be repaired quickly, which is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
Profit forecast and valuation
Without considering the impact of major asset restructuring, we expect the net profit of 22-24 years to be -1.33 billion, 3.79 billion and 5.09 billion yuan, and the target price in 2022 will be 67.90 yuan / share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of passenger flow is less than expected, and the repair of the epidemic is less than expected.
