\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 926 Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) )
Highlights of the annual report: 1. The performance maintained stable and high growth, and the net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. Revenue and PPOP increased by 18.4% and 17.2% respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate was stable at a high level. Under the overall sound asset quality, the provision of the company was stable, and the annual net profit increased by 29.8% year-on-year. 2. In the fourth quarter, the growth rate of credit supply maintained a high growth. In Q4, it increased by 25.1 billion in a single quarter, an increase of 4.5% month on month, and the proportion of loans remained stable at 42.3%. The new credit in Q4 was mainly driven by retail, with an additional 15.48 billion yuan. The proportion of personal loans in interest bearing assets increased to 16.1% month on month. New personal loans are mainly consumer business loans. The proportion of consumer business loans increased slightly compared with previous years, accounting for 24.5%; The proportion of mortgage loans increased steadily at 10%, an increase of 0.7pct over the half year. 3. The net fee income increased by 19.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than that in the first to third quarters; Settlement, agency and custody businesses grew well. The growth rates of settlement and agency services were 40.9% and 33.3% respectively. Custody business is the main support of the company’s handling fee income. In 21 years, the custody fee income was 21.99 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29%. 4. Stable and excellent asset quality and high margin of safety. Non performing: the non-performing rate was 0.86%, which continued to decline 4bp month on month in the third quarter, the lowest since 2012. Concern loans accounted for 0.38%, with a marginal decrease of 18bp, and concern + non-performing loans accounted for 1.24%, down 22bp month on month. The overall concern indicators were low, and the non-performing pressure in the future was very small. Overdue: the overdue rate decreased 8bp to 0.62% month on month; The proportion of loans overdue for more than 90 days decreased 8bp to 0.55% compared with half a year. The company’s recognition of non-performing is very strict. Overdue accounts for 71.81% of non-performing, and overdue is basically included in non-performing. Provision: the coverage of provision for non-performing assets increased by 8.3 percentage points to 567.7% month on month.
The annual report is insufficient: 1. The annualized interest margin in a single quarter is 1.55%, down 3bp month on month. The month on month decline in net interest margin was mainly due to the upward drag on the cost of liabilities, and the return on assets in a single quarter rose 4bp to 3.78% month on month; The debt side interest payment rate rose 9bp to 2.44% month on month. 2. The core Tier-1 capital adequacy ratio fell month on month, and there was a certain pressure on capital. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 8.43%, 10.40% and 13.60% respectively, with a chain comparison of – 8bp, – 16bp and – 27bp.
Investment suggestion: company 2022e, 2023epb1 12X/0.99X； PE8. 99x / 7.76x (City Commercial Bank pb0.77x / 0.68x /; pe6.39x / 5.63x), the company has stable operation, excellent asset quality and high safety margin. With significant regional advantages, the company takes Hangzhou as its base and fully infiltrates Zhejiang Province. The six branches are strategically deployed in developed economic circles such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Bay, further opening up the development space of the company. Large retail financial business also has growth soil, including the growth of consumer credit on the asset side and the development of wealth management business on the capital side. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 33.551/37.974/42.461 billion yuan (the previous value is 37.719/44.474 / – billion yuan), with a growth rate of 14.3% / 13.2% / 11.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 11.137127.41/14.489 billion (the previous value was RMB 10.631123.33 / – billion), with a growth rate of 20.3% / 14.4% / 13.7%. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 5.00% / 5.00% / 5.00%; The bond investment yield is 3.20% / 3.20% / 3.20%. 2. The company’s deposits are facing competitive pressure, and the interest payment rate is adjusted to 2.24% / 2.24% / 2.24%. 3. The asset quality of the company is good, the provision is stable, and the provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 1.75% / 1.68% / 1.60%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
