\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 882 Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 706 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.87%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.47%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 93 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.68%; Greatly exceeding market expectations.
The performance of 2022q1 greatly exceeded expectations and the profitability reached a new high.
(1) growth: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 706 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.47%, and the net profit level reached a record high; We believe that under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the company’s profit side can still reach a record high in a single quarter, which fully proves the high outlook of the machine tool industry and the high growth and high profitability of the company as the leader of China’s general machine tools. In addition, as of the first quarter of 2022, the balance of the company’s contract liabilities and other current liabilities (the company implemented the new accounting standards in 2020, and the advance receipts were included in the contract liabilities account) was 1.011 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.33%, indicating that the company’s orders grew well and there were sufficient orders on hand, providing strong support for the high growth of annual performance.
(2) profitability: in the first quarter of 2022, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 25.66% and the overall net profit margin was 15.63%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.11pct, the highest level in a single quarter in history. We believe that the main reasons for the continuous improvement of the company’s profitability are: ① the scale effect continues to highlight (for example, in the absence of new production capacity, the company’s revenue scale has increased rapidly since 2020, resulting in the continuous decline of average cost); ② The expense rate has been declining. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate were 4.93% / 0.98% / – 0.38% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.36pct / – 0.49pct / + 0.55pct respectively. It can be seen that the company’s cost control ability has been continuously improved.
It is planned to invest 1 billion yuan to build new production capacity, which is expected to open up space for future growth. The company announced that it plans to sign a project investment agreement with the Management Committee of Ningbo Economic and Technological Development Zone and invest 1 billion yuan (including fixed asset investment of no less than 825 million yuan) for the construction of intelligent production base of high-end CNC machine tools. Since the recovery of China’s machine tool industry in the second half of 2020, the downstream demand is strong, and the capacity bottleneck has become the main restrictive factor for the rapid growth of most enterprises in the industry Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) mainly adopts the method of tapping the potential of existing production capacity and outsourcing some non core components to improve production capacity to meet the strong demand of the industry, but the range of production capacity improvement brought by this method continues to decrease. We believe that in this context, the company plans to invest 1 billion yuan to build a high-end CNC machine tool project, which can effectively alleviate the problem of insufficient production capacity. At the same time, it also shows the company’s confidence in the future industry demand and its own rapid development.
The layout of new energy vehicles and other fields in advance is expected to usher in the second growth curve. The demand for machine tools in the field of new energy vehicles comes from two aspects: ① structural changes give birth to the demand for machine tools. Compared with the traditional fuel vehicles, the structure of new energy vehicles has undergone significant changes. The parts represented by the powertrain need to be processed by customized machine tools, which leads to the new demand for machine tools. According to our calculation, the demand for new machine tools in the field of new energy vehicles will be 26.5 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025. ② The integrated die casting process meets the supporting requirements of machine tools. Integrated die casting is a subversion of the traditional automobile manufacturing process. After integrated die casting, it is necessary to provide corresponding machine tools for machining die castings. If this process is used for vehicle processing, according to our calculation, the total demand for machine tools corresponding to China’s annual output of 8million new energy vehicles is about 44billion yuan Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) has significant advantages in the field of new energy vehicles: ① special planes in the field of new energy vehicles have been reserved in advance, with the advantage of first mover; ② In the processing of new energy vehicle parts and the cutting processing of supporting large die-casting machines, large gantry machine tools are the main models, which is the strength of the company and is expected to benefit fully. At present, the company is actively arranging and expanding in the field of new energy, which is expected to provide momentum for the growth of the company.
Maintain the “buy” rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 470 million, 589 million and 719 million, and the corresponding PE will be 21, 17 and 14 times respectively.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is weakening, and the expansion of the field of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
