\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 068 Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) )
The supply and demand pattern of carbon black is expected to improve, and a number of advantages will consolidate the leading position of the company Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) is the dragon head of carbon black in China. It has eight production bases in China, with a carbon black production capacity of 1.1 million tons / year, ranking first in China and in the forefront of the world. On the supply side, China's carbon black production capacity is structurally surplus. Under the background of stricter energy consumption and environmental protection supervision, China began to eliminate backward production capacity. On the demand side, in 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine blocked the export of Russian carbon black, and there was a shortage of carbon black in Europe. In addition, the international oil price was at a high level, the cost of overseas oil head carbon black increased sharply, and the cost advantage of Chinese coal head carbon black was prominent. Chinese carbon black is expected to expand the export scale under the double benefits of demand and cost. As an industry leader, the company takes the lead in scale, products, services, technology, energy consumption control and environmental protection investment. With the improvement of carbon black supply and demand pattern, the company is expected to benefit.
Special carbon black is added to optimize the product structure, and phenol sodium salt wastewater is refined to turn waste into treasure. Special carbon black has the characteristics of high added value, and the demand accounts for about 10.5% of the total demand for carbon black. Medium and high-end products depend on imports. In 2021, in order to fully explore and integrate the special carbon black market and optimize the company's carbon black product structure, the company carried out in-depth cooperation with Anhui Heiyu, and the production capacity of special carbon black was increased to 130000 tons / year. In order to solve the problem of phenol sodium salt wastewater produced by coal tar refining, the company and Anhui Shi jointly set up a subsidiary to jointly carry out the resource utilization project of phenol sodium salt wastewater and arrange resorcinol, m-cresol and other products. The demand for resorcinol in the fields of dyes, medicine and pesticides increases year by year. The continued implementation of its anti-dumping duty helps to protect the interests of Chinese resorcinol manufacturers, and m-cresol is highly dependent on imports, After the production capacity of m-cresol cooperated by the company is put into operation, it is expected to accelerate the localization process.
Strategic layout of new energy materials with conductive carbon black and PVDF as the starting point. Conductive carbon black for lithium battery depends on import, and there is a large gap between domestic products and imported products in quality Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) at present, the production capacity of conductive carbon black is 10000 tons / year, which is mainly used in the fields of cable shielding material and conductive color masterbatch. In terms of conductive carbon black for lithium battery, the company has been studying the standard imported medium and high-end conductive carbon black. At present, the process is constantly optimized, and the industrialization of the project will be promoted rapidly after the demonstration is completed. In 2022, the company established a joint venture with Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) to build a 50000 T / a PVDF project and continue to go deep into the new energy industry chain. According to the prediction of lithium battery research institute of advanced industry and research, the global power battery shipment is expected to reach 1550gwh in 2025 and 3000gwh in 2030. In the future, there is broad growth space for lithium batteries, which is expected to drive the demand for conductive carbon black and PVDF.
Investment advice. As the dragon head of Chinese carbon black, the company continues to make efforts in the field of special carbon black and comprehensively enters new energy materials with conductive carbon black and PVDF as the starting point. The profitability of the company is expected to continue to improve and the long-term growth momentum is sufficient. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.64, 0.51 and 0.83 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 16, 20 and 12 times respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: product price falls; The price of raw materials continues to rise; Capacity release is less than expected; The market development of special carbon black is less than expected; The promotion of projects related to new energy materials was less than expected
