\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Key investment points
High cost suppresses 21q4 profit performance and is expected to improve quarter on quarter in 22 years
In terms of products, (1) cultural paper: the revenue of 21a is 8.671 billion yuan (+ 20.29%), and the gross profit margin is 15.96% (- 6.54pct); 21h2 has a revenue of 4.002 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 5.12% (- 5.20 PCT). (2) Coated paper: the revenue of 21a is 4.099 billion yuan (+ 16.80%), and the gross profit margin is 19.73% (- 5.68pct); 21h2 has a revenue of 1.836 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 5.56% (-13.26pct). (3) Carton board: 2021a revenue of 9.87 billion yuan (+ 136.59%), gross profit margin of 15.43% (-0.93pct); 21h2 has a revenue of 5.548 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 14.59% (- 6.82pct). (4) Dissolved pulp: the revenue of 2021a is 3.255 billion yuan (+ 49.46%), and the gross profit margin is 22.97% (+ 26.50pct); 21h2 has a revenue of 1.422 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 22.30% (+ 32.15pct). (5) Chemical mechanical pulp: 2021a revenue of 1.827 billion yuan (+ 2.25%), gross profit margin of 21.16% (+ 0.72 PCT); 21h2 has a revenue of 894 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 28.34% (+ 12.22pct). In 21 years, the company achieved the sales volume of 5.23 million tons of paper (+ 37.63%) and 1.07 million tons of pulp. Since September, the energy cost has risen sharply (the peak in October is 116.7% higher than that in early September, and the average price of Q4 is + 25.69% month on month). The paper price is low (the average price of Q4 coated / double glue / box board is 5362, 5517 and 5170 yuan, with a month on month ratio of - 1.54%, - 1.08% and + 1.31%). The profit margin of 21q4 is at the bottom of history. We judge that 21q4 carton board and dissolved pulp are the main sources of profit contribution. 22q1 with the improvement of overseas import and export and the rise of pulp price, it is expected that the cultural paper will be greatly repaired and the dissolved pulp will continue to rise. Considering the large-scale production of Guangxi base with high efficiency in 22 years, it is optimistic that the profit in 22 years will be improved quarter by quarter.
Cultural paper: pulp rose, the impact of imported paper decreased, and 22q1 improved significantly month on month
The price of 21q4 cultural paper is low. Based on the impact of high energy and cost, the profit per ton is greatly suppressed. Due to supply side disturbances such as UPM strike, damage to transport capacity in Canada and the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of 22q1 coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp entered the upward channel (up 35.22% and 28.10% respectively compared with the low point of 21q4); With the recovery of overseas demand, the margin of the total amount of imported paper weakened, and the import of 21q4 coated / double glue was 277 / 268000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 10.13% / - 23.28% and a month-on-month increase of - 21.85% / - 18.02%. The supply and demand structure was improved; At present, the prices of copper sector and double glue have increased by 8.40% and 17.41% respectively compared with the low point of 21q4. Considering the dividend of self-sufficiency pulp, the decline of import impact and the decline of energy cost, the profit per ton is expected to improve significantly.
Dissolved pulp and carton board: 22q1 expects the profit of dissolved pulp to continue to rise, and carton board is looking forward to the peak season
The price of 21q4 dissolved pulp weakened, but the profit margin remained at a high level, which is expected to contribute to Q4 performance; Benefiting from the rising price of pulp, the price of dissolved pulp has increased by 22.39% compared with the low point of 21q4. It is expected that the profit per ton will continue to rise. Considering the cost advantage of wood chips in Laos base, we calculate that the net profit of 22q1 ton is more than 1000 yuan. Considering that the price of pulp is still in the upward channel, it is expected that the dissolved pulp will maintain a good profit in 22 years.
Thanks to the significant cost advantages of semi chemical pulp and sawdust pulp of the company, carton board is expected to be the main contributor to 21q4 profit; On the supply side, 164400 tons of 21q4 carton paperboard were imported, with a year-on-year increase of - 51.80%, and the supply and demand pattern was improved; The average price of 22q1 carton board was 4883 yuan, with a month on month ratio of - 5.55%. The price performance in the off-season was stable; With the fall of energy costs, the expected profit continues the stable performance in the early stage.
The expense rate is well controlled and the cash flow is sufficient
(1) the gross profit margin of 21a company is 17.37% (-2.07pct), which is the result of the sharp rise in energy costs since the third quarter and the impact of imported paper. In terms of expense rate, the company's period expense rate is 6.42% (- 1.46pct), sales expense rate is 0.43% (- 0.05pct), management + R & D expense rate is 4.22% (- 0.7pct), and financial expense rate is 1.77% (- 0.7pct); The corresponding net interest rate of the company is 9.24% (+ 0.19pct). (2) At the end of the year, the company's inventory was 3.506 billion yuan (an increase of 610 million yuan compared with the beginning of the period), mainly due to the increase of 930 million yuan in finished products compared with the beginning of the period; Fixed assets of 27.922 billion yuan (an increase of 6.968 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the period) and projects under construction of 294 million yuan (a decrease of 2.141 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the period), which are caused by the continuous completion and conversion of Beihai projects into fixed assets; At the end of the year, the company's long-term loan was 5.391 billion yuan (an increase of 2.182 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the period), and the asset liability ratio was 55.98% (+ 1.26pct). (3) The net operating cash flow of the company in 21 years was 4.929 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.687 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to the investment of Beihai project.
Guangxi project is put into operation to improve efficiency, and the integration of Forest Pulp and paper is developed in depth
The 550000 tons of cultural paper, 800000 tons of chemical pulp and 200000 tons of chemical mechanical pulp of the company's Guangxi project have been successfully put into operation in 21q4. It is expected that the company will achieve full production in 22 years. The total production capacity of the company's paper and pulp will reach 10 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp will be further improved to help the company improve quality and efficiency. In February, 22, the company signed a framework agreement with Nanning municipal government and invested in the construction of a forest pulp paper integration project with an annual output of 5.25 million tons in Nanning. Nanning has significant geographical advantages. On the one hand, it is close to Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) , with convenient waterway transportation. On the other hand, it is close to ASEAN countries and can form good coordination with Laos base; At the same time, Nanning is rich in forestry resources, has a good foundation for logistics transportation and industrial chain supporting, and has prominent cost advantages in transportation and raw materials; The first phase of Nanning project will focus on the construction of box board capacity. With the landing of production capacity, the scale advantage is further revealed. The freight and raw material cost advantages of Guangxi base are prominent, which is optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company's benefits.
Profit forecast and valuation
As a leading enterprise with the strongest profitability in the industry, the company has integrated forestry, pulp and paper to build cost advantages, capacity expansion to ensure growth, and medium-term growth logic is smooth. Considering the quarterly improvement of the company's profits and the production of high-efficiency projects in Guangxi, the equity incentive is expected to be successfully completed. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 33.235 billion yuan, 34.908 billion yuan and 36.211 billion yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 3.87%, 5.03% and 3.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.007 billion yuan, 3.144 billion yuan and 3.279 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, 4.58% and 4.29%, corresponding to PE of 10.72x, 10.25x and 9.82x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The rise of raw materials, the demand is lower than expected, and the rise of paper price is lower than expected
