\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 920 Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) )
Event overview: the company released the 2022q1 quarterly report: during the period, the operating revenue was 3.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 318 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.22%; The net profit after non deduction was 308 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.96%; Net operating cash flow was 0.46 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.39%.
Performance exceeded expectations. Two perspectives: 1) revenue perspective: 2022q1 company achieved revenue of 3.142 billion yuan, an increase of 53.86% year-on-year and a decrease of only 3.83% month on month. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the output of passenger cars in China in 2022q1 increased by only 10.85% compared with the same period of last year. The growth rate of the company's revenue was significantly better than the average level of the car market. In absolute terms, the revenue also reached a historical peak; From a month on month perspective, under the influence of the epidemic situation + lack of core + Spring Festival in Q1, China's passenger car production fell sharply from 2021q4 to - 18.59%, while the decline rate of the company's revenue was significantly lower than the industry average, reflecting a significant improvement α Attributes; 2) From the perspective of net interest rate: in 2022q1, the company's sales net interest rate reached 10.03%, although it decreased by 1.15pct year-on-year. However, we think it is still higher than expected because: from the cost side, under the great impact of global core shortage in 2022q1, the company's gross profit margin on sales can still maintain 23.96%, down only 1.08pct year-on-year (it is worth noting that the real outbreak of global core shortage began in 2021q2); On the cost side, in 2022q1, the company's R & D investment reached 278 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69.61%. On the basis of continuing the impact of high investment + lack of core, the company can still maintain a relatively stable net interest rate, which also exceeded the general expectation of the market.
Two major reasons drive the performance to exceed expectations, and the outlook remains optimistic in the follow-up. We believe that there are two reasons for the performance exceeding expectations: 1) the revenue side - cockpit has increased steadily, and the self driving has maintained a high increase. Among them, taking self driving as an example, ipu01 has achieved large-scale mass production, ipu02 has also been designated by many companies, and mass production and supply have been realized at the end of 21. Ipu03 has been supplied on a large scale in P7 and P5. According to Xiaopeng's official statistics, P7 delivery has continued to reach a new high. Although the sales volume of P5 decreased slightly month on month in January / February, it has remained stable on the whole (the total sales volume in the first quarter was 10486 vehicles). According to our calculation, the self driving revenue of 2022q1 company is about Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) million yuan (predicted to be about 150200 million yuan in the same period last year), making a significant contribution; 2) Cost side - relying on the supply chain capacity, the gross profit margin of products remains stable. We believe that under the background of global core shortage, OEMs may pay more attention to the stability of product supply for Tier1, that is, supply guarantee capacity. In order to cope with the fluctuation of supply market, the company has actively arranged and purchased raw materials to deal with the risk. According to the disclosure of the 21st Annual Report, the book value of the company's inventory at the end of the period reached 2.03 billion yuan, an increase of 85% over the beginning of the period, of which the book value of raw materials was 906 million yuan, an increase of 167.26% over the beginning of the period, This forward-looking layout of the supply side is also the reason why the company's gross profit margin can achieve "standing but not falling". Looking forward to the follow-up, we judge that the cockpit will still maintain a stable growth, in which the driving information shows that the business contribution may be relatively obvious. In the self driving, ipu01 will maintain a stable growth, and ipu02 / ipu03 may make a further breakthrough. Ipu04 is expected to realize batch shipment in the middle of the year. According to our prediction, it is conservatively expected that the company's annual self driving revenue may reach more than 3 billion yuan.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1.149/1.549/2.081 billion in 22-24 years, and the current market value corresponds to 49 / 36 times of PE in 22 / 23 years. We believe that the company has high-quality passenger source and obvious advantages in intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving card, so we maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the impact of fluctuations in the global auto market; Supply recovery is less than expected; The business is not progressing as expected.
