\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 015 Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) )
Event:
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.040 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.80%.
Key investment points:
The scale of wind power operation has been greatly improved. As of December 31, 2021, the total installed capacity of the company’s grid connection is 377744mw, including 243714mw gas turbine cogeneration, 832.3mw wind power, 60MW biomass power generation, 116MW waste power generation and 332mw coal-fired cogeneration; The installed capacity of grid connected wind power increased by 307.9mw year-on-year. Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the suspension of coal imports from Australia and other factors, the international natural gas price has repeatedly reached new highs, the coal price has continued to operate at a high level, and the cost of coal-fired cogeneration and gas turbine cogeneration projects has been raised in the short term; Wind power projects have no fuel cost, and the significant increase in operation scale helps to improve the company’s profits and make up for the negative impact of the rise in fuel prices.
Accelerate the promotion of power exchange business and create an ecological closed loop of green power, power exchange and energy storage. The company focuses on the power exchange scenarios of taxis, online car hailing, heavy trucks and light trucks, and works with Geely, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ground rail and other leading enterprises to focus on the development of power exchange business in nine regions. In 2021, the company will complete the construction of five passenger vehicle replacement power stations and one commercial vehicle replacement power station. In 2022, the construction of power exchange stations was accelerated. At present, 9 power exchange stations for passenger cars and 4 power exchange stations for commercial vehicles have been built. In March 2022, the company announced the completion of a fixed increase of 3.765 billion yuan, and the first phase of CICC GCL carbon neutralization 10 billion industry investment fund was officially launched with no more than 4.5 billion yuan, which will be mainly used for the construction project of new energy vehicle power station, creating an ecological closed loop of green power, port station, vehicle, battery and energy storage.
Layout upstream mineral resources and improve the synergy of mobile energy business. In January 2022, GCL honeng, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, signed the cooperation framework agreement with hechen Yingjia and century Tiansheng to lock in the upstream mineral resources and ensure the resources for the company’s mobile energy business.
Profit forecast and investment rating we believe that the company has sufficient reserves of projects in hand, high short-term energy prices control the company’s profits, and may improve in the medium and long term; At the same time, the mobile energy business is expected to accelerate the landing and open up new growth space. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be RMB 1.295/17.30/2.263 billion respectively, corresponding to 20 / 15 / 11 times of PE. It will be covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the implementation progress of clean energy projects in hand is less than expected; The construction progress of the replacement power station is less than expected; The continuous rise of natural gas price leads to the risk of decline in gross profit margin; Impairment risk of accounts receivable; Risk of wind abandonment and power limitation; Repeated outbreaks have led to lower than expected demand for electricity and steam.
