\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 48 Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) )
Events
During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.572 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.37%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 126 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.73%.
1. The performance is in line with expectations, and the investment of large banks and one-time factors affect the short-term statements
The company's profit was in the middle of the previous performance forecast range of 100 million ~ 140 million, in line with expectations. Large bank investment and one-time factors such as exchange gains and losses affect the current profit. The company's revenue is basically flat. Considering the large increase in inventory, we expect it to be mainly related to the project recognition of large bank customers.
2. Benefiting from the rapid growth of financial Xinchuang orders, the expected results in 22 years are reflected in the statement
In fact, the company's business in the past 21 years has been stable. According to the growth rate of digital financial business orders of the company, the growth rate of big data orders has exceeded 26%. Referring to the announcement, the company is expected to gradually adapt to the cooperation mode with big banks in 22 years, and the project confirmation and gross profit margin are expected to recover. We expect the results in 22 years to be reflected in the statements.
3. Overseas business is advancing rapidly, and the long-term business model is expected to change under the product iteration
In the past 21 years, the growth rate of overseas contracts of the company has exceeded 95%, the growth rate of revenue has reached 65%, and the bid winning rate is more than 25%. Considering the growth rate of orders, the 22-year high growth is expected to continue. At the same time, the company said, "we will deepen and enrich our product lines in the Southeast Asian market, and explore new business models under the guidance of digital strategy." Considering the acceptance of SaaS model by overseas customers, the long-term business model is expected to change under the product iteration.
Considering the impact of short-term recognition rhythm, we lowered the profit forecast, reduced the company's revenue in 22 / 23 years from 2.677/3.534 billion yuan to 2.232/2.857 billion yuan, and predicted that the revenue in 24 years would be 3.857 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 was reduced from 351 / 457 million yuan to 245 / 317 million yuan. It is predicted that the net profit in 24 years will be 446 million yuan, corresponding to the current market value p / E of 33.03/25.44/18.11x. Considering the smooth expansion of overseas and large banks' businesses, we maintain the buy rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of IT industry in banks is lower than expected; The company's business development is less than expected; Overseas market policy risk.
