\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 668 China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) )
The company announced 21fy annual report, with annual revenue of 1.89 trillion, yoy + 17%, 15% higher than 19fycagr; Net profit attributable to parent company was 51.4 billion, yoy + 14%, compared with 19fycagr + 11%. The corresponding 21q4 company revenue is 554.3 billion, yoy + 3%, compared with 19q4cagr + 12%; Net profit attributable to parent company was 13.6 billion, yoy-2%, compared with 19q4cagr + 7%. Exceeding market expectations. The company also disclosed the 22 year dividend plan, which plans to distribute 10.49 billion cash dividends (including tax), accounting for 20.4% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years, continuing the steady increase trend of dividend proportion in recent years.
21q4 revenue continued to increase rapidly, the gross profit margin of the project rebounded, the impairment increased more, and the real estate benefits were under pressure
The real estate construction / Infrastructure / real estate revenue of 21fy company is 1.15 trillion / 410 billion / 330.9 billion respectively, yoy is + 15% / 18% / 22% respectively (compared with 19fycagr, + 15% / 14% / 24% respectively, vs21q1-3 three business yoy is + 20% / 22% / 38% respectively). The revenue growth of 21q4 slows down slightly, mainly due to the high base of 20q4, and the revenue growth continues to be strong. The newly signed contract amount of 21fy company’s construction business is 3.11 trillion, yoy + 12% (compared with 19fycagr + 12%). The growth of newly signed housing construction is resilient, and the capital construction continues to increase rapidly; At the end of 21fy, the total number of orders in hand of the company’s construction business was 6.49 trillion, 4.2 times the revenue of construction business in the same period, and the orders were sufficient. The real estate sales of 21fy company is 422.1 billion, yoy-2% (compared with 19fycagr + 5%), and the real estate sales stage is under pressure. 22m1-2 company signed 445.8 billion new contracts for construction business, yoy + 7% (including housing construction yoy + 7% and infrastructure yoy + 5%); Real estate sales reached 31.3 billion, yoy-40%.
21fy company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 11.3%, yoy + 0.5pct; Among them, 21q4 is 13.3%, yoy + 1.9pct. In terms of business, the gross profit margin of real estate construction / Infrastructure / real estate development business of 21fy company is 7.8% / 10.4% / 21.1% respectively, yoy is + 1.1 / + 1.9 / – 5.1pct respectively (the gross profit margin of vs21q1-3 three businesses is 6.9% / 9.2% / 23.3% respectively), and the gross profit margin of 21q4 real estate construction and infrastructure business has improved significantly; The marginal pressure of real estate continues. The cost rate of 21fy has increased to a certain extent, mainly due to the increase of R & D intensity (the R & D cost rate of 21fy company is 2.1%, yoy + 0.5pct, which is more than 2% for the first time); Real estate risk events caused a large increase in the company’s impairment at the stage (21fy company’s impairment loss totaled 12.6 billion, yoy + 244%, and the proportion of impairment loss in revenue was yoy + 0.5pct to 0.7%), which dragged down the company’s net interest rate at the stage. The net interest rates attributable to the parent company of 21fy and 21q4 were 2.7% and 2.4% respectively, yoy were -0.1 and -0.2pct respectively.
The asset liability ratio continued to consolidate, the turnover of the two funds continued to accelerate, and the cash to income ratio maintained a good level
At the end of 21fy, the company’s asset liability ratio was 73.2%, yoy-0.5%; The debt ratio with interest is 32.9%, yoy + 2.0pct. The turnover days of 21fy Liangjin (inventory + contract assets + accounts receivable) are 219 days and yoy-9 days, continuing the trend of accelerating turnover in recent years. 21fy’s net inflow of operating and investment cash flows were 14.4 billion and – 32.4 billion respectively, yoy 5.9 billion and + 20.2 billion respectively; The expenditure on business activities (project funds, real estate development funds, etc.) is still rigid at this stage, and there is expected to be room for optimization in the future. The 21fy cash to cash ratio yoy + 1PCT will reach 107%, maintaining a good level; The net outflow scale of investment cash flow gradually returns to the previous steady-state level on the basis of 20-year high base.
The company is the core asset of the real estate chain, benefiting from industry changes and maintaining the “buy” rating
Based on more cautious real estate business expectations, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22/23 was slightly lowered to 56.2/63.6 billion (the previous value was 59.1/67 billion), and the new 24-year forecast was 72.5 billion. YoY in 22-24 years was +9%/13%/14% respectively. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of real estate, engineering and other businesses in 22-24 years is expected to be 258 / 294 / 343 and 304 / 342 / 38.2 billion respectively, and the steady economic growth is expected to rise. We have stronger confidence that the prosperity of the real estate industry has bottomed out and risen in 22 years. At the same time, under the background of accelerated differentiation of the real estate industry, the development prospect of the company’s real estate business may be better. Maintain the company’s target price of 9.52 yuan, corresponding to the company’s 22-year pe7.5 yuan 1X, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of real estate investment is lower than expected, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than expected, the transformation rhythm of order income is significantly slowed down, the cash recovery effect is lower than expected, and the impairment risk
