\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 481 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) )
Event: in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 299.50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 340.80%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 101 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 638.43%.
Comments:
The sales volume of monocrystalline silicon wafer and polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace increased, and the company’s revenue and performance continued to increase. Driven by the “double carbon” policy, the installed capacity of renewable energy such as photovoltaic has increased rapidly, and the demand for polysilicon reduction furnace, silicon wafer and other products in the photovoltaic industry chain has continued to grow rapidly. The company’s monocrystalline silicon wafer project is gradually put into operation, and the release of production capacity has become an important driving force for the company’s revenue and performance growth; At the same time, the polysilicon reduction furnace business benefited from the promotion of silicon material production expansion, achieved sales growth, and also contributed to the substantial growth of the company’s revenue and performance.
The production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafer has been gradually implemented, and the company has entered a new stage of rapid growth. The company has signed long-term agreements on silicon material supply and silicon wafer sales. The upstream silicon material and downstream sales of the company’s single-crystal silicon wafer production are guaranteed, and the landing of production capacity is expected to drive the continuous high growth of the company’s performance. In addition, the landing of the company’s non-public offering and the further growth of the company’s capital strength will accelerate the landing of the company’s monocrystalline silicon production capacity. As the company’s monocrystalline silicon production capacity enters the release period, the company’s revenue and performance usher in a new stage of sustained and rapid growth. According to the company’s announcement, at present, the company’s single crystal plant 1 in Baotou (equivalent to about 8GW of annual production capacity) has been fully put into operation, and the construction progress of single crystal plant 2 has exceeded expectations and is gradually put into operation. In 2022, the company will realize an annual production capacity of more than 20GW as soon as possible and lay out n-type silicon wafers; By 2023, the company will realize a total annual capacity of more than 40gw as soon as possible. In the first quarter of 2022, the company delivered about 0.9gw of silicon rods / wafers (182 / 210mm).
The company’s polysilicon reduction furnace, skid, heat exchanger and other equipment products have full orders and continue to enjoy a high boom. The expansion of polysilicon silicon material production has been promoted. The reduction furnace, skid, heat exchanger and other equipment products of the company have all covered the polysilicon industry. The market demand is strong, and the order volume has increased significantly year-on-year. Since 2022, the company has signed polysilicon reduction furnace equipment sales contracts with Daquan new energy, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , crystal new energy and other companies, with a total amount of 1.299 billion yuan. In the future, with the delivery of project orders, the company’s polysilicon reduction furnace business revenue is expected to increase significantly.
Layout photovoltaic module business and add new momentum to performance growth. The company has invested in the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary Shuangliang Xinneng Technology (Baotou) Company as the investment and operation subject of the project with an annual output of 20GW high-efficiency photovoltaic modules. The total investment of 20GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project phase I 5GW photovoltaic module project is expected to be 1.5 billion yuan, with a construction period of two years. The main specifications of the project products include 550W and 660w. At present, the project filing of phase I 5GW project has been completed, and the subsequent 15gw capacity construction will be completed at an appropriate time. In the future, the company’s photovoltaic module production capacity will be put into operation, which will bring incremental revenue and performance to the company and help the company further grow its revenue and performance.
Maintain the “overweight” rating: the company’s monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity is accelerated, and the order volume of polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace equipment business has increased significantly, while the company’s layout of photovoltaic module business will bring new performance growth points for the company, which is optimistic about the continuous and rapid growth of the company’s revenue and performance in the future. Considering the accelerated production of the company’s monocrystalline silicon wafer capacity, the growth of the company’s polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace business orders, and the landing of photovoltaic module capacity in the future will help the company’s performance to further grow, the company’s profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 9.795 billion yuan, 14.036 billion yuan and 19.181 billion yuan respectively (6.435 billion yuan and 10.278 billion yuan respectively in 2022 and 2023 before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 155.76%, 43.30% and 36.65% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 754 million, RMB 1109 million and RMB 1624 million respectively (before adjustment, it was RMB 598 million and RMB 931 million in 2022 and 2023 respectively), with a year-on-year increase of 143.09%, 47.15% and 46.38% respectively. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.46, 0.68 and 1.00 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 22.08, 15.01 and 10.25 times respectively.
Risk warning: the project progress is not as expected; The implementation of the policy is not as expected; The expansion of silicon material enterprises is not as expected: the risk of silicon material price decline.
