\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 6.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.12%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.029 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.50%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 2.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.50%. The revenue and performance were in line with expectations, and the contract liabilities were 2.067 billion yuan, compared with 1.096 billion yuan in the same period last year.
The new version of the fourth opening successfully iterated, and the proportion of special a + products continued to increase. The revenue of 21 years was in the median value of the previous forecast, and the net profit was slightly higher than the median value of the forecast. By product, special a + / Special A / class a achieved revenue of 4.17 billion yuan, 17.1 billion yuan and 270 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.7% / 14.1% / 4.4% respectively. The gross price of 2T + products increased by 82.5% year-on-year, accounting for 1.5% year-on-year, and the gross profit rate of 1V + products increased by 1.5% year-on-year, accounting for 1.5% year-on-year. In terms of sub regions, the province is still the Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) main market, with annual revenue of 5.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%. Huaihai / Central Jiangsu / Southern Jiangsu grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 44.9% / 32.9% / 32.5% respectively; The market revenue outside the province increased by 36.0% year-on-year. Under the dual brand layout, the structure outside the province has been significantly improved, and the market cultivation has been promoted in an orderly manner.
The cost investment increased and the net interest rate increased. With the improvement of product structure and the price increase of main products, the gross profit margin increased by 3.49% year-on-year to 74.61%. In order to ensure the smooth iteration of new products, the company appropriately increased the cost investment and rebate during the transition period of new and old products. In the past 21 years, the promotion and prize cashing expenses increased by 48.6% year-on-year, the advertising expenses remained stable, and the sales expense rate reflected in the statement decreased by 2pct year-on-year. The net profit was affected by the decrease in net investment income (175 million yuan in 21 years compared with 20 years), and the net interest rate increased by 1.07 PCT to 31.68%.
Invest in a new capacity of 38000 tons to escort the development of the 14th five year plan. In February this year, the company announced to invest about 9.1 billion yuan to build 38000 tons of raw wine production capacity and supporting facilities. Some investors are worried that large-scale investment may lead to overcapacity. We believe that the rise of the Jiangsu’s economic growth in the past is partly due to the quality of its products that consumers are attracted to. The higher prices of the V series require higher product strength. The brewing of elegant Maotai Baijiu liquor also requires longer storage time. The company’s long-term planning for capacity planning and its gradual investment in five years will not make the cash flow deteriorate significantly.
Equity incentive continues to promote and promote the long-term development of the company. On October 31, 2021, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) launched the share repurchase plan of the company, which is intended to be used to implement the equity incentive plan. At present, the company has completed the stock repurchase for the equity incentive plan. It is expected that the equity incentive work is expected to continue in the future. It is expected that after the incentive continues to be promoted, the internal vitality will be improved and the 10 billion target will be completed ahead of schedule. According to the business plan disclosed in the company’s annual report, the company has set a revenue target of 7.5 billion yuan in 2022 (a year-on-year increase of 17.0%) and strive for 8 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 24.8%); The net profit target is 2.25 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 10.9%), and strive for 2.35 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 15.8%). Under the current repeated epidemic situation in East China, the annual goal shows the company’s stable business strategy. The company attaches importance to the relationship between manufacturers and will not over pressure the dealers. According to the previous business planning and actual situation, it is possible to slightly exceed the business planning.
Investment suggestion: the company has a good start in 2022, with good payment collection and sound channel inventory. In the future, the increase in the proportion of V-series and the decrease in the cost rate caused by the scale effect will increase the net interest rate. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue in 22-24 years will be RMB 78.41/94.95/11.463 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.35% / 21.10% / 20.73%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 24.65/30.56/3.784 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.50% / 23.96% / 23.82%, EPS will be RMB 1.97/2.44/3.02 respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE in 22-24 years will be 22.32x/18.00x/14.54x. We believe that the company is growing well and maintains the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the national expansion is less than expected, and the high-end process is less than expected
