\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 291 Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) )
Core view
Factors such as asset loss and provision for goodwill led to significant loss of performance in 21 years. 1) The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 2.814 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -7.04 in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 30.8% and - 2996.2% respectively, corresponding to EPS of -0.77 yuan; 2) Significant performance loss is mainly affected by asset loss and goodwill provision; Specifically: a) affected by the macro consumption environment and the company's business transformation, the footwear industry suffered operating losses, and the provision for bad debts and inventory falling price of the footwear industry for the whole year was about 315 million yuan; b) Vogue Fengxun and Beijing Shixin accrued 207 million yuan of goodwill impairment; 3) In the long run, the company has disclosed that it plans to divest the traditional shoe business, and the drag of related businesses on the company's operating performance is expected to be eliminated; At the same time, the provision of goodwill also helps the company to start light loading in 22 years and help improve its operating performance.
The turning point of Q1 performance in 22 years is upward. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 80-120 million in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 753% - 1179%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 75-113 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 917% - 1425%, and the performance inflection point was upward; The substantial growth of performance is mainly due to the high growth of Q1 live broadcast e-commerce business (Gmv increased by about 60% year-on-year); Considering the negative impact of Q1 epidemic on e-commerce business, as well as the loss of footwear industry, equity incentive fee (about 19 million yuan) and other factors, the company's performance has higher growth potential.
Live e-commerce maintained high growth, and the layout of virtual human and NFT focused on the future. 1) Kwai tiktok and shaking platform have been pushing forward the business of direct seeding business of the company to maintain high growth, Q1 grew by about 60% year-on-year. At the same time, a multi-level anchor matrix has been built, and the anchor / artist teams represented by Huang Zitao, Jia Nailiang, Cecilia Cheung, Lou Yixiao and Yu Dazi have been signed; Looking forward to the second quarter, the impact of the epidemic may further enhance the demand for goods, driving the live broadcast e-commerce to continue to maintain high growth; 2) In terms of virtual human, the company has launched the first digital virtual human "Kong Xiang", twin anchor technology, digital studio and other innovative businesses; NFT will build its own brand IP digital collection, and the first digital collection of virtual digital man "Kong Xiang" has been officially reserved for sale.
Risk tips: regulatory policy risks; Goodwill impairment risk; Risk of loss of head anchor / artist; Supply chain risk, etc.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the development of live broadcast e-commerce, pay attention to the progress of innovative business, and maintain the "buy" rating.
We maintain the profit forecast of 2022 / 23 as 740 / 930 million yuan, diluted EPS = -0.77/0.82/1.02 yuan in 2021 / 22 / 23, and the current stock price corresponds to PE = 24 / 20x in 22 / 23. In the short term, under the stripping of traditional business and the provision of goodwill, the company is expected to go into battle with light equipment, and the performance inflection point has appeared; In the medium and long term, the trend of live broadcast e-commerce industry is upward, and factors such as short-term epidemic also have a boosting effect on the demand of live broadcast e-commerce. The company has significant advantages from anchor / artist team to supply chain system; At the same time, in terms of emerging digital technologies, the company has arranged virtual human "Kong Xiang", twin anchor, NFT and other fields, and its overall competitive strength and commercialization ability are expected to be further improved. At the same time, the company recently announced a repurchase plan of 150300 million yuan, which also helped to enhance market confidence. We continue to be optimistic about the growth potential of the company and continue to maintain the "buy" rating.
