\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
The performance in 2021 slightly exceeded our expectations. We are optimistic about the repair of profitability in the short term and maintain the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 31.997 billion yuan (+ 48.21%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.957 billion yuan (+ 51.39%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.932 billion yuan (+ 52.44%). In 2021q4, the revenue was 8.282 billion yuan (+ 39.19%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan (- 69.98%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 211 million yuan (- 64.62%). The significant decline in 2021q4 performance was mainly due to the limited recovery of market demand and the rise of raw material costs. In 2021, the revenue and profit slightly exceeded the expectation, increased significantly under the low base, slightly raised the profit forecast, and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 3.033/31.903334 billion yuan (originally 2.947/31 billion yuan in 20222023), the corresponding EPS will be 1.13/1.19/1.24 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 10.6/10.1/9.7 times. It is optimistic about the marginal repair of the company's profitability in the short term and maintain the "buy" rating.
Revenue split: cultural paper grew steadily, kraft linerboard performed beautifully, and the proportion of revenue increased significantly
In terms of products, in 2021, the company's revenue from uncoated cultural paper, dissolved pulp, coated paper, kraft liner paper, chemical mechanical pulp and household paper was 8.671 billion yuan (+ 20.29%), 3.255 billion yuan (+ 49.46%), 4.099 billion yuan (+ 16.80%), 9.87 billion yuan (+ 136.59%), 1.827 billion yuan (+ 2.25%) and 857 million yuan (+ 9.01%) respectively. Except for corrugated base paper, the revenue of other pulp and paper products increased positively year-on-year. Among them, the revenue growth of uncoated cultural paper and coated paper was slower than the whole, and the proportion of total revenue decreased from 49.64% to 39.91%; The revenue of kraft linerboard increased rapidly, and the proportion of revenue increased from 19.32% to 30.85%; Dissolved pulp maintained rapid growth, and the proportion of revenue increased slightly from 10.09% to 10.17%.
Profitability: under the background of low paper price + high material cost, the profitability of 2021q4 is under pressure
Gross profit margin: in 2021, the overall gross profit margin of the company was 17.37% (-2.07pct). The decrease of gross profit margin was mainly due to the low price of 2021h2 paper and the increase of raw material cost. Expense rate side: benefiting from the rapid growth of the revenue side and the company's excellent fee control ability, the expense rate of the company decreased by 1.46pct to 6.42% year-on-year in 2021, continuing the downward trend. Net interest rate side: in 2021, the company's net interest rate was 9.24% (+ 0.19pct), deducting non net interest rate was 9.16% (+ 0.25pct), and the annual profitability margin was repaired. The net interest rate in 2021q4 is 2.28% (- 7.32pct), and the net interest rate deducted from non net interest rate is 2.55% (- 7.47%). The profitability is under pressure. It is waiting to be repaired after the improvement of supply and demand pattern in 2022.
Risk tip: the demand recovery is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the company's production capacity is less than expected.
