\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 895 Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) )
Event 1: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.36%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157.88%, and a weighted average roe of 11.48%, a year-on-year increase of 5.06 percentage points. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 609 million yuan, an increase of 57.12% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 104 million yuan, an increase of 205.13% year-on-year. The company’s performance was in line with expectations.
Event 2: the company released the non-public offering plan for 2022, the number of shares to be issued is not more than 100 million, and the fund to be raised is not more than 3.529 billion yuan.
The increase of phosphate rock self-sufficiency rate and price rise led to a significant increase in income and performance:
1) in the first half of 2021, the company completed the acquisition of mining rights and related assets of Xinqiao Phosphate Mine and jigongling phosphate mine, and the self-sufficiency rate of Phosphate Mine increased significantly. In 2021, the output of phosphate rock was 2.46 million tons, and about 1.05 million tons of phosphate rock were exported except for its own. At the same time, the prices of the company’s main products calcium dihydrogen phosphate and monoammonium phosphate increased year-on-year, which was the main reason for the growth of the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to its parent company in 2021.
2) the products and phosphate rock landscape continued to rise in 2022, and the maintenance affected the first quarter’s quarter on quarter performance: the company’s Q1 revenue and net profit fell to a certain extent in 2022, mainly because the first quarter was the traditional off-season of the company’s calcium dihydrogen products (downstream used for aquatic feed). At the same time, the company’s semi-aqueous wet process phosphoric acid production line had to be overhauled in March every year, superimposing the Spring Festival and Guizhou weather factors, Historically, the company’s first quarter performance accounted for a low proportion of the annual performance. In terms of product price, the price of the company’s calcium dihydrogen phosphate product in 2021 was 3301 yuan / ton. Since April 2022, the company has resumed the quotation of calcium dihydrogen phosphate, and the Chinese market price has increased significantly to 5600 yuan / ton from 3850 yuan / ton in February. The main reason is that the continuous shortage of high-quality phosphate rock since the first quarter has made it very difficult for competitors to purchase phosphate rock, the capacity utilization rate remains low, and the Japanese nuclear radiation The ban on fishing on the Yangtze River has increased the demand for aquaculture. From overseas, Russia is also an important producer of calcium dihydrogen phosphate. At present, the inventory of the whole industry is low. The company is the absolute leader of calcium dihydrogen phosphate in China. At present, it has a production capacity of 360000 tons, a market share of nearly 40%, and has strong pricing power. According to our calculation, the price difference has expanded significantly.
3) as of the first quarter of 2022, the company’s projects under construction amounted to 1.059 billion yuan, mainly including 1.5 million tons of beneficiation and 300000 tons of pyrite acid plant, 200000 tons / year semi water dihydrate wet process phosphoric acid and fine and deep processing project and 100000 tons of iron phosphate project in Guangxi Base, which are expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2022. On the one hand, it will reduce the cost of the company’s existing chemical business, In addition, the new purified phosphoric acid and iron phosphate products will open up the growth space of the company.
4) the company’s expense ratio in 2021 was 9.81%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.02 percentage points, of which the sales expense decreased by 64.32%, mainly due to the inclusion of transportation expenses related to the contract in operating costs in 2021.
Non public offering to improve the production capacity of phosphate rock and purified phosphoric acid: the funds raised by the company in this non-public offering are mainly used for the comprehensive utilization of medium and low-grade phosphate rock to produce 120000 T / a food grade purified phosphoric acid project, 100000 t / a food grade purified phosphoric acid project and the new 2.5 million T / a mining project of jigongling phosphate mine. After being put into operation, the company’s phosphate rock production capacity will be further improved and the purified phosphoric acid production capacity will be supplemented, On the basis of meeting the demand of its own iron phosphate production line, some surplus capacity will be sold directly.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 900 million, RMB 1.41 billion and RMB 1.83 billion respectively, corresponding to 13.2, 8.4 and 6.5 times PE respectively. We are firmly optimistic about the transformation of the company’s phosphorus fluorine lithium new energy materials with large growth space. We maintain the “buy” investment rating and continue to make firm recommendations.
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, the project construction progress is less than expected, and the product price drops due to intensified competition.
