\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Investment logic
Wet diaphragm is a global giant with three characteristics. 1) High profit margin: the differential yield of the diaphragm industry leads to a steep cost curve. The company obtains a high profit margin by virtue of its significant low-cost advantage (29.9% / 36.3% in 20 / 21 years and 6.9% / 19.8% in the industry on average). 2) High market share: the company has the cost advantage, continuously enhances its R & D investment advantage and capacity expansion advantage, accelerates the increase of market share during the period of oversupply, ushers in the simultaneous rise of volume and price during the period of oversupply, and maintains the increase of market share under the law of long-term producer surplus (global / China share of 30% / 60% in 21 years). 3) High quality customer structure: the key customer strategy leads the company to deeply bind with lithium battery giants such as Ningde, LG and Panasonic and large overseas automobile enterprises to ensure the safety of long-term orders. At the same time, the company is committed to establishing a global supply system and enabling the market share target of 50% in 25 years.
Cost analysis: focusing on capital and technology R & D will shape the spear, and the steep cost curve of the industry will be maintained. The company’s R & D investment (0.14 yuan / square meter) is significantly higher than the industry average level (0.1 yuan / square meter, three-line diaphragm factory 0.03-0.08 yuan / square meter), and the sustainability of future competitiveness is guaranteed. In addition, the company has completed the upgrading of key technologies, such as online coating, which is expected to save 15% – 20% of the coating cost. Compared with other producers in the industry, the cost gap continues to expand, and the steep cost curve of the diaphragm industry will be maintained.
Polymer material platform creates the nth growth curve. Wet diaphragm provides a profit and cash flow basis for the company’s performance growth. The company is committed to building a polymer material R & D platform: 1) dry film: the company has obtained Celgard’s exclusive authorization for blow molding process, and the dry gross profit margin is expected to be comparable to that of wet diaphragm, with a long-term plan of 3 billion Ping (jointly building 2 billion Ping with Ningde). 2) Aluminum plastic film: the stable supply of 3C aluminum plastic film has been realized, and the mass production of power aluminum plastic film is expected to be realized in 22-23 years, with a long-term planned capacity of 400 million square meters. 3) Aseptic packaging film: it has the production capacity of aseptic packaging adaptive filling machine, breaks the monopoly of foreign capital, and the planned aseptic packaging capacity exceeds 50 billion. It is expected that the global share will increase to more than 10% in 25 years (0.3% in 20 years).
Raised investment projects: the diaphragm production expansion plan is active, and the platform category continues to expand. The company’s 21-year fixed increase project of 12.8 billion yuan has been approved and is expected to be completed within the year. The project plans to build 3.4 billion square meters of wet diaphragm (including coating film) and 280 million square meters of aluminum plastic film. Among them, the diaphragm project is expected to consolidate the company’s leading position in the industry, and the aluminum-plastic film project will help expand the category of polymer material platform and improve the company’s long-term sustainable development ability.
Investment advice
The prosperity of the electric vehicle industry continues to exceed expectations, and the company’s cost advantage and customer expansion in the field of wet diaphragm are obvious to all. The company built a polymer material platform, and the growth curve of new products began to reflect. We expect that the company’s performance in 22, 23 and 24 years will be RMB 5.0/75.8/11.39 billion respectively. With reference to comparable companies, the company is given 60 times PE in 22 years, the target market value is 300 billion yuan, the corresponding target price is 258 yuan / share, and the “buy” rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips
The sales volume of new energy vehicles was lower than expected, the demand for diaphragm decreased due to the change of lithium battery system, the risk of reducing the shares held by the actual controller, directors, supervisors and senior managers, the risk of deviation in industry calculation, and the company’s capacity expansion was lower than expected.
