\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
The company released its annual report for 21 years, with a revenue of 6.406 billion yuan (YoY + 25.1%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.029 billion yuan (YoY + 29.5%), which ended smoothly. The company predicted that the revenue of 22q1 was about 3 billion yuan (YoY + 25%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1 billion yuan (YoY + 24%), realizing a stable start.
V series leads the structural upgrading, and the high increase of contract liabilities supports the growth of performance. Split products. In 21 years, special a + and special a + achieved revenue of 4.165 billion yuan (YoY + 35.7%) and 1.714 billion yuan (YoY + 14.1%) respectively. The proportion of special a + increased by 5.1pct to 65.3%, and the product structure was steadily upgraded; Among them, the V series is expected to continue high growth and lead the structural upgrading; The steady growth of China’s four-way opening and opposite opening has supported the growth center. The total revenue of other a / B / C / D / other products in 21 years is 500 million yuan (yoy-4.7%), and the volume shrinks. In terms of sub regions, the province achieved revenue of 5.933 billion yuan (YoY + 24.4%) in 21 years. Huai’an, Nanjing, Southern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu, Yancheng and Huaihai regions achieved revenue of 1.271 billion yuan, 15.78 million yuan, 8.52 million yuan, 869 million yuan, 757 million yuan and 606 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, 19.8%, 32.5%, 32.9%, 15.0% and 44.9%. The growth rate of Southern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu and Huaihai regions was higher; In 21 years, the income outside the province was 447 million yuan (YoY + 36.0%), of which 21q4 increased by 32.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased month on month. At the end of the year, the balance of contract liabilities was 2.067 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 1.206 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 971 million yuan, which is expected to support the subsequent performance growth.
Structural improvement boosted gross profit margin and continued to improve profitability. The gross profit margin in the 21st year was 74.61% (YoY + 3.49pct), and the main yield structure was upgraded. At the same time, the gross profit margins of special a + and special a increased by 1.25pct and 2.43pct respectively. In the 21st year, the sales expense ratio was 15.10% (yoy-2.00pct), mainly because the proportion of advertising expenses decreased; The management expense ratio was 4.03% (yoy-0.45pct), which decreased slightly; Taxes and surcharges accounted for 17.25% (yoy-0.17pct) of revenue. Overall, the net profit margin of sales in 21 years reached 31.68% (YoY + 1.07pct), and the profitability continued to improve.
The new chairman’s appointment is expected to promote governance improvement and is optimistic about the long-term growth space. On the margin, the wholesale prices of four opening and counter opening are about 415 yuan and 265 yuan respectively, which are stable month on month; The recent epidemic has fluctuated, but the Baijiu is in the low season, and the epidemic situation in Jiangsu is well controlled. It is expected to have limited impact on the operation of the company. After the new chairman Gu takes office, he is expected to continue to promote reform and improve the company’s operation and management ability. The company plans to achieve revenue of 7.5 ~ 8 billion yuan in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 17% ~ 25%; The net profit was 2.25 ~ 2.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11% ~ 16%. In the long term, the company plans to have a revenue of more than 10 billion yuan in 2025 and strive for 15 billion yuan, corresponding to 21-25cagr12% ~ 24%, with a promising growth space
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
By raising the revenue and gross profit margin, it is predicted that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 2.01, 2.48 and 3.00 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 1.98 and 2.41 yuan). In combination with comparable companies, give 26 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 52.26 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: the channel sinking is less than expected, the competition in the province is intensified, and the risk of food safety incidents.
