\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
The performance of the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the volume of bivalent HPV vaccine and reagent increased. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 284.85%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 360.18%, and the performance growth exceeded market expectations. The substantial growth of the company’s operating revenue and profit is expected to be mainly due to the large sales of divalent HPV vaccine, the growth of chemiluminescence reagent sales, and the increase of covid-19 antigen detection reagent. According to the data of the Central Inspection Institute, the company has issued 67 batches of HPV bivalent vaccine in 2022q1, which is further improved compared with 2021q3 and Q4, and the industry continues to maintain a high outlook.
China’s HPV vaccine market is still broad and optimistic about sustainable development. Up to now, HPV vaccine is still the only vaccine for cancer prevention in the world, with significant and safe preventive effect. At present, only five HPV vaccines in the world have been approved for listing, including Merck’s tetravalent and jiuvalent vaccines, GSK’s bivalent vaccine, Watson’s bivalent vaccine and the company’s bivalent vaccine. Globally, the HPV vaccine market as a whole is in short supply; From the perspective of China, at present, the penetration rate of female school-age population aged 9-45 in China is only 7.5%, which is far lower than that in developed countries such as Europe and the United States. According to our calculation, the market penetration space of HPV vaccine in China is large, and the corresponding market space is still broad. From the data of HPV vaccine signing batches since 2022, China’s demand is still strong and continues to be optimistic about the development of the industry. As the first domestic HPV vaccine supplier, the company has a good competition pattern and is expected to fully benefit from the large-scale growth of the industry in the medium and short term; At the same time, the company’s research and development progress of HPV nine valent vaccine products is at the forefront of the market and has benefited from the growth of the industry for a long time.
The company has deep R & D accumulation and rich pipeline reserves under research. The company has a deep research and development accumulation, and cooperates with the research team of Professor Xia nidvd of Xiamen University to develop a unique E. coli expressing virion like particle vaccine technology platform with independent intellectual property rights, which has broad application prospects. Based on this technology platform, in addition to HPV vaccine, the company also reserves varicella vaccine, nasal covid-19 vaccine, 20 valent pneumonia vaccine and other pipelines under development, which can be developed in the long term. The clinical trial of chickenpox has been completed in a short period of time.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
In terms of valuation, as the sales of HPV vaccines and reagents exceeded expectations, we raised the relevant sales revenue assumptions and predicted that the company’s earnings per share in 20222024 would be 6.73/9.65/12.40 yuan respectively (originally 5.83/7.73/9.42 yuan). Considering the scarcity and rapid growth of the company in the field of HPV vaccine, with reference to the comparable company’s 22-year 41 times PE, a 20% premium will be given, and finally 49 times PE will be given for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 329.77 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
HPV vaccine sales were less than expected; HPV vaccine prices fell sharply; The pipeline under research is not as expected; Chemiluminescence sales were lower than expected; Changes in assumptions affect the measurement results and other risks.
