\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 126 National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) )
The performance slightly exceeded expectations. The company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 2.467 billion yuan, an increase of 36.2% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 146 million yuan, an increase of 67.8% over the same period last year; After deducting non profits, the net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 132 million yuan, a decrease of 53.0% over the same period last year.
Key points supporting rating
The volume of large silicon wafer business is obvious, and the yield has increased steadily. In 2021, the company’s 300mm silicon wafer revenue reached 690 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.9%; The sales volume was 1.752 million pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 93.6%; The average selling price was 393 yuan / piece, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%; The gross profit margin was – 6.2%, a significant increase of 28.6pcts over the previous year. During the reporting period, the subsidiary Shanghai Xinsheng 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer production capacity has completed the installation and construction of 300000 pieces / month, and started the production expansion construction of 300000 pieces / month. With the steady improvement of the yield of 300mm silicon wafers, the advantages of production capacity and scale appear. Under the mismatch pattern of industry supply and demand, the price of large silicon wafers is expected to increase, and the profit of 300mm silicon wafer business is expected to continue to increase.
The silicon wafer business of 200mm and below grew steadily, and the demand was driven by the application of automotive electronics. In 2021, the company’s 200mm silicon wafer revenue reached 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; The sales volume was 4.972 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%; The average selling price was 286.7 yuan / piece, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%; The gross profit margin was 21.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3pcts, mainly due to the change of product structure. During the reporting period, while expanding the production capacity of 200mm SOI silicon wafer, the company further improved the production capacity by removing bottlenecks and improving production efficiency, optimized the product structure, and launched the production expansion plan of 200mm epitaxial wafer for automotive electronic applications, so as to meet the growing market demand of downstream customers. The demand for 200mm silicon wafers continues to improve, and the manufacturer’s expansion plan is less than 300mm silicon wafers. With the continuous boom, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the supply advantage of high-end segments.
Advanced manufacturing processes continue to achieve breakthroughs and lead the domestic substitution of silicon wafers. During the reporting period, the company successfully passed the technical certification of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafers for 14nm logic products, and realized the batch supply of 300mm semiconductor silicon wafers for 14nm process node applications; Successfully developed and verified 300mm semiconductor silicon wafer for 19nm DRAM, and made breakthrough progress; Successfully passed the certification of 300mm polishing wafer for 64 layer and 128 layer 3dnand applications, and realized mass supply. The company has gradually realized the leapfrog development of advanced technology nodes from 40-28nm to 20-14nm, and then to defect free silicon wafer technology for memory.
Valuation
The production expansion of downstream wafer plants is accelerated, and the supply of silicon wafers continues to be tight. With the steady increase in the utilization rate of 300mm silicon wafers, the company’s profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.08 yuan, 0.11 yuan and 0.14 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 284.3 times, 202.9 times and 166.5 times respectively. Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The production progress of the raised investment project is less than expected, the R & D progress is blocked, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
