\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 707 Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) )
The company issued the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the total revenue was 715 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 55.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company lost 464 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 68.63%; 21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 212 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%; 22q1 achieved a total revenue of 59 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 37.64%, and a net profit loss attributable to the parent company of 57 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.70%. The loss narrowed in 2021.
Key points supporting rating
The epidemic situation has been repeated and the performance has been under pressure, focusing on the new demand for mass tourism. In 2021, affected by the epidemic, the company achieved a total revenue of 715 million yuan, yoy-55.10%, and a net profit loss of 464 million yuan, yoy + 68.63%. On the whole, the company’s 21q2 performance was good (YoY + 177.26%). 22q1 achieved a total revenue of 59 million yuan, yoy-37.64%, with a gross profit margin of 15.22%, an increase of 3.57 PCT year-on-year. In the first quarter, the epidemic occurred repeatedly. Under the influence of the “circuit breaker” mechanism and the traditional off-season of tourism, the company’s total revenue fell in a single quarter. At present, the outbound tourism business has not been restarted. The company adjusts the market layout, promotes China’s tourism wholesale and retail business, explores the reconstruction of industrial chain structure, and continues to improve the tourism product system with local peripheral tourism and theme tourism as the core. China’s epidemic prevention and control efforts are still relatively strict. The company actively transformed to explore business opportunities at the bottom of the industry, and its confidence in long-term recovery remains unchanged.
Deepen Ali’s strategic cooperation and jointly promote digital transformation. On December 8, Alibaba network became the second largest shareholder of the company through the equity transfer agreement. At present, the joint venture tourism product distribution system between the two sides has been successfully implemented, with more than 3000 registered consultants and more than 1000 daily activities. We will deeply tap the private domain flow of tourism consultants, open up the upstream, middle and downstream industrial chain of resources, and launch a number of digital operation reform projects in the future to explore the synergy brought by the advantages of industry leading resources, Iterative upgrading of technology enabled industries.
Join hands with various cross-border cooperation and wait for the recovery of consumption after the epidemic. The company makes every effort to promote tax-free consumption cooperation in Hainan Island and give full play to its overseas resource advantages, aiming to expand cross-border medical treatment, international tourism consumption center, sports tourism demonstration area, planning and construction of Hainan International island and other projects. In July 2021, the company launched its own inland cruise ship project, actively explored and developed China’s medium and high-end tourism market, enabled post epidemic Chinese tourism products, and took advantage of the “14th five year plan” strategic opportunity period to lay the tone of dual cycle development outside China after opening the country.
Valuation
In the past 22 years, the epidemic has been repeated for many times, and the company’s business has been blocked due to strict control measures taken all over the country. The company’s short-term performance will still be under pressure. However, the company actively transformed and focused on China’s peripheral tourism, and superimposed policies are good for tourism recovery. Considering that the company’s main business is outbound tourism, the consumer demand is waiting to be released after the opening of the country, and the logic of long-term recovery remains unchanged, adjust the EPS of 22-24 years to -0.02/0.16/0.19, corresponding to the P / E ratio of -398.6/41.8/35.0, and maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
Covid-19 epidemic risk is repeated, the recovery of outbound tourism is less than expected, and the landing of cooperation projects is less than expected.
