\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . In 2021, the revenue was 6.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, the net profit was 2.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, and the earnings per share was 1.62 yuan. 4q21's revenue and net profit were 1.07 billion yuan and 330 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8% and a net profit increase of 30.4%. Contract liabilities + other current liabilities were 2.34 billion yuan, an increase of 1.36 billion month on month (MOM) from 1-3q21. The overall performance is in line with expectations.
Key points supporting rating
In 2021, the product structure will be optimized, the brand potential will be improved, and the weak areas in the province will perform well. (1) In terms of products, the foundation in the province has been continuously consolidated, and the internal product structure has been upgraded smoothly. The revenue of products above 300 yuan was 4.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, accounting for 65% of the revenue, and a year-on-year increase of 5.1pct. We judge that Kaixi is the main source of revenue increment, especially Sikai, which is the largest single product of the company at this stage. After the successful replacement in the first half of 21 years, the brand potential continues to improve. The current transaction price is about 460 yuan, and we continue to enjoy the upgrading of business demand in the province. The effect of the V-series battle is obvious. It has created a new scene of high-end appreciation meeting and V9 Experience Hall, and established a V99 alliance to successfully undertake the good consumption foundation formed by the four development projects in the province. The income growth rate is fast, accounting for about 10%. (2) In terms of subregions, intensive cultivation in the province continued to deepen, and weak regions performed strongly. In 2021, the company's strong regions Huai'an, Nanjing and Yancheng performed steadily, with revenue growth rates of 18%, 19.8% and 15% respectively. The weak regions Southern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu and Huaihai grew by 32.5%, 32.9% and 44.9% respectively, accounting for 13.3%, 13.6% and 9.5% respectively. We mentioned in the previous in-depth report that there are great differences between the north and the south in Jiangsu Province. The economic development level of Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu is leading and the competition is fierce. Although the company has a late layout of Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu, with the continuous improvement of brand potential energy and the comprehensive introduction of Guoyuan V series, there is still much room for improvement in Jiangsu Province.
The product structure was improved and the sales expense rate was down, and the net interest rate increased by 1.1pct in 2021. In 2021, the ton price of the company's products was 190000 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. The ton price increased significantly, and the gross profit margin increased by 3.5pct year-on-year. In 2021, the company's sales rate was 15.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2pct. With the increase of revenue scale, the proportion of advertising expenses decreased significantly. The income from changes in fair value and investment income decreased by 225 million yuan year-on-year, dragging down the rise of profit margin.
1q22 achieved a good start, the new chairman took over smoothly, and the development of high potential energy continued. (1) Benefiting from the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus in Jiangsu Province, the company continued to optimize its product structure. At the same time, the epidemic situation was well controlled during the Spring Festival. The growth rates of 1q22 revenue and net profit were 25% and 24% respectively, making a good start. (2) On April 7, the company announced that the former chairman Zhou suming retired due to his age, and Gu Xiangyue took over the post of chairman. Considering the long-term development and smooth handover of the company, Mr. Gu Xiangyue served as the general manager of Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) in November 2020. After nearly two years of in-depth understanding of the company's production and channels and his rich management experience in the government, we believe that the new chairman can succeed smoothly and the high potential can continue to develop. (3) The company has set a revenue target of 7.5 billion yuan in 2022, striving for 8 billion yuan, and a net profit target of 2.25 billion yuan, striving for 2.35 billion yuan. We judge that the revenue in 22 years is expected to be close to the target upper limit, and the net profit is expected to exceed the upper limit.
Valuation
It is estimated that the company's EPS will be 1.97, 2.44 and 3.00 yuan / share respectively from 22 to 24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, 23.9% and 23.2%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Main risks of rating
The province is squeezed by competitive products and the channel inventory is overstocked. Failed to successfully complete the goal planning.
