\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company released the annual report of 2021, and achieved a revenue of 32 billion yuan (+ 48.2%) in 21 years; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.96 billion yuan (+51.4%); The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.93 billion yuan (+ 52.5%). Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 8.28 billion yuan (+ 39.2%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million yuan (- 66.7%), and the performance was in line with expectations.
Affected by the rising cost of raw materials and energy, the gross profit margin fell, and the cost control continued to be optimized. In 2021, the company's overall gross profit margin was 17.4% (- 2.1pp), mainly due to the sharp rise in the price of raw material wood pulp and the cost of coal and other energy during the reporting period. Among them, the gross profit margins of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 23.4% / 22.1% / 14.4% / 9.9% respectively. Q4 slurry price rebounded sharply, and the company's profitability fell to the bottom of history (Q4 net profit margin 2.3%). In the case of losses of some paper enterprises in the industry, the company still maintains positive profitability, reflecting the company's outstanding ability in cost control and strong anti risk ability. Specifically, the gross profit margins of uncoated cultural paper / coated paper / electric and steam / chemical mechanical pulp / dissolved pulp / household paper / coated base paper / kraft liner paper are 16.0% (- 6.5pp) / 19.7% (- 5.7pp) / 18.0% (- 13pp) / 21.2% (+ 0.7pp) / 23.0% (+ 26.5pp) / 4.1% (- 18.6pp) / 22.3% (- 4.4pp) / 15.4% (- 0.9pp) respectively. In terms of expense rate, the total expense rate in 2021 reached 6.4% (- 1.5pp), of which the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate / R & D expense rate were 0.4% (- 0.1pp) / 2.5% (- 0.5pp) / 1.8% (- 0.7pp) / 1.7% (- 0.2pp) respectively. Benefiting from the increase of gross profit margin, the decrease of expense rate and income tax rate, the company's net profit margin increased by 0.2pp to 9.3% year-on-year, and its profitability remained stable.
The performance of main products is bright, and kraft linerboard / cultural paper / dissolved pulp contribute an important increment. By product, in 2021, the company's Kraft linerboard / uncoated cultural paper / coated paper / dissolved pulp / chemical mechanical pulp / coated base paper / electricity and steam / household paper and other businesses contributed revenue of 9.87 billion yuan (+ 136.6%) / 8.67 billion yuan (+ 20.3%) / 4.1 billion yuan (+ 16.8%) / 3.26 billion yuan (+ 49.5%) / 1.83 billion yuan (+ 2.3%) / 1.61 billion yuan (+ 95.0%) / 1.07 billion yuan (+ 34.9%) / 860 million yuan (+ 9.0%) / 530 million yuan (+ 277.13%), The proportion of revenue was 30.9% / 27.1% / 12.8% / 10.2% / 5.7% / 5.0% / 3.6% / 2.7% 1.7% respectively. During the reporting period, the revenue scale of various categories increased to varying degrees, of which the main product Kraft linerboard grew the fastest, contributing 55.1% to the growth of total revenue. During the reporting period, the sales volume of paper / pulp was 5.23 million tons (+ 37.6%) and 1.07 million tons (10.3%) respectively, maintaining a rapid growth in the state of weak terminal demand last year. In terms of regions, domestic / overseas contributed revenue of 31.51 billion yuan (+ 48.7%) / 490 million yuan (+ 24.1%), accounting for 98.5% and 1.5% respectively.
Capacity continued to expand, and the strategic pattern of "three bases" took shape. Under the background of the gradual recovery of the overall prosperity of China's pulp industry and the strong global consumption demand for paper products, the company continued to expand its production capacity to respond to the changes in customer demand. During the reporting period, the total output of the company's paper and pulp products was 5.36 million tons and 1.13 million tons respectively. With the smooth trial production of the pulp project in Beihai Park of Guangxi base, the strategic pattern of the company's "three bases" has been basically formed, and the company's paper The total output of pulp will reach a new level of 10 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 54.1%. Under the coordination of raw material self-sufficiency rate and upstream and downstream integration, the company is expected to maintain a stable upward trend of profitability and further consolidate cost barriers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.16 yuan, 1.36 yuan and 1.56 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 10 times, 9 times and 8 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in the price of raw materials; The risk of sharp fluctuations in paper prices; The risk that the investment project is not put into operation as expected.
