\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 920 Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) )
Key investment points
Event: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) released the first quarterly report of 22 years, and the revenue / profit exceeded expectations.
The revenue / profit exceeded expectations, the net interest rate decreased slightly, and the R & D investment continued to increase: the company realized a revenue of 3.142 billion in 22q1, a year-on-year increase of + 54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 318 / 308 million, a year-on-year increase of + 39% / 38%, and the income / profit exceeded the expectation. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 24.0%, down 0.8pcts from 21q4. The net interest rate of 22q1 was 10.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3pcts compared with 21q4. The sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 1.8% / 2.3% / 8.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.0 / + 0.1 / + 0.8pcts respectively. The overall expense ratio improved slightly, and the R & D investment continued to increase. The net cash flow from operating activities was about 46 million, which was negative in the same period of 21 years. Contract liabilities were 344 million, a month on month increase of + 21.4%.
Possible reasons for the higher than expected revenue: 1) the rapid start-up of intelligent driving products represented by ipu02: at the end of 21, the company's L2 level integrated travel and parking domain controller (ipu02) started mass production and delivery. It is expected that the Q1 delivery end has started the volume rapidly, and driven the company's camera, ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar and other sensing layer supporting products to start the volume; 2) Smooth delivery of high-end projects in the cockpit sector: Although the overall prosperity of the passenger car market in Q1 has declined due to the impact of epidemic / core shortage / geopolitics and other factors (according to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars in China in 22q1 was - 4.5% year-on-year), the sales growth of new forces of electric vehicles represented by "weixiaoli" is still strong (the cumulative delivery volume of Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal 22q1 is 25768 / 34561 / 31716 units respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 28% / 159% / 152% respectively). Desai's multi screen, large screen, multi screen vehicle / LCD instrument projects are expected to be considerable (for example, ideal one Qualcomm 820a triple screen cockpit); 3) FAW / SAIC Volkswagen, FAW Toyota and other customers were mainly affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Jilin and other places in March. The delivery in March is expected to be limited in Q1 settlement: in March 22, FAW Volkswagen / SAIC Volkswagen / FAW Toyota were affected by the epidemic, and their sales were - 43% / - 2.2% / - 16% year-on-year respectively. There was a certain delay in the delivery of Tier1 products to the offline settlement of finished vehicles, and the company's Q1 was less affected by the epidemic in both places.
Possible reasons for the decline of gross profit margin: 1) the cost of raw materials such as upstream chips has increased: 22q1 geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine superimposed the haze of the epidemic, and the supply chain of upstream chips in the industrial chain continues to be tense, which is expected to have a certain negative impact on the cost side of the company; 2) The annual decline of products has brought certain dilution of gross profit: the expected decline of unit price of old products of cockpit series + ipu03 after mass delivery may also have a certain negative impact on the company's gross profit. 3) Starting quantity of perception layer parts: the mass production and landing of ipu02 is expected to drive the company's mass shipment of perception layer parts, and the gross profit of perception layer parts is expected to be slightly lower.
Orders are full, inventories continue to increase month on month, and the vehicle supply chain is gradually recovering. It is optimistic that the company will continue to realize its business potential. From 18 to 21, the company's annual sales of new project orders were 7 / 70 / 70 / 12 billion respectively, with a growth rate of 80% in 21 years, breaking a record high (intelligent driving 4 billion +) and abundant orders on hand. Impact of the epidemic: FAW Volkswagen Changchun factory has resumed the offline of the whole vehicle. On April 14, SAIC issued the notice on Issuing the guidelines for the prevention and control of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) resumption of work and production, actively promoted the resumption of work and production, and has begun to actively explore the resumption capacity of supporting suppliers and coordinate the opening of cross provincial green supply channels. It is expected that the automobile industry chain in Shanghai and surrounding areas will also recover rapidly in the near future. Considering that the company's current orders are full and the haze of the epidemic gradually dissipates, the main factor restricting the company's performance will still be the supply side. The book value of the inventory of 22q1 company is about 2.6 billion, up 28% from the high water level of 21q4, and there are abundant materials, fearing the fluctuation of the upstream supply chain and the challenge of the epidemic.
Maintain profit forecast and "buy" rating: optimistic about the steady progress of the company's high-end cockpit under the trend of reversal of industry difficulties and acceleration of electrification / intellectualization / high income growth of intelligent driving product lines, and continue to realize the business potential. It is estimated that the company will realize revenue of RMB 12.97/17.06/22.29 billion, net profit of RMB 1.20/17.4/2.39 billion and corresponding EPS of RMB 2.16/3.13/4.31 in 22-24 years. Give the company a 22-year 70-75x target P / E, corresponding to the target price of 150.99-161.78 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic has led to the continuous decline of China's fuel vehicles / new energy vehicles; The landing process of high-end domain controller is delayed; Intensified competition in cabin business; Deterioration of core shortage in the industry, etc.
