\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 966 Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) )
2021 has a good performance in the whole year, is optimistic about the marginal repair of short-term profitability, and maintains the "buy" rating
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 16.276 billion yuan (+16.41%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.706 billion yuan (+104.50%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.713 billion yuan (+108.37%). The high-speed growth of the annual performance was mainly due to the positive policies of "Prohibition of plastic" and "Prohibition of waste" and the impact of consumption upgrading. The company increased the research and development of new products to grasp the industry dividend. In 2021h1, production and sales were booming, contributing 89% of the annual performance. In 2021q4, the revenue was 4.340 billion yuan (- 6.76%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was - 211 million yuan (- 168.84%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was - 210 million yuan (- 168.94%). The significant decline in performance in one quarter was mainly due to weak market demand and the decline in product prices under the release of centralized production capacity. At the same time, the rise in commodity prices raised production costs. The performance of 2021q4 is under pressure, the profit forecast is lowered, and the profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 1.35116121972 billion yuan (originally 2.5522721 billion yuan in 20222023), the corresponding EPS will be 1.01/1.21/1.47 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 8.6/7.2/5.9 times. Pay attention to the marginal repair of short-term profitability and maintain the "buy" rating.
Revenue split: white cardboard grew steadily, while cultural paper and cardboard grew rapidly
In terms of products, in 2021, the company's revenue from white cardboard / cultural paper / gypsum face protection paper / box board paper was 12.508 billion (+ 13.63%), 1.574 billion yuan (+ 61.12%), 525 million yuan (- 8.35%) and 1.590 billion yuan (+ 20.90%), respectively. White cardboard grew steadily, with a revenue contribution of 76.85%. The price of white cardboard increased greatly in 2021, raising the overall revenue scale; Cultural paper and box board paper grew rapidly, and the proportion of revenue increased to 9.67% and 9.77% respectively.
In 2021h2, the "price cost" scissors effect is enhanced, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin are high before and low after
In 2021, the gross profit margin and net profit margin were high before and low after, mainly due to the widening supply and demand of 2021h2, the rising cost of raw materials and the weakening price of white card paper. Gross profit margin: in 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 22.93% (+ 5.87pct), and in 2021q4, the gross profit margin was 3.50%, year-on-year -11.16pct and month on month -18.31pct. Expense ratio: during 2021, the expense ratio of the company was 8.16% (- 0.83pct), which improved significantly. Among them, the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense ratio increased from + 0.13 / + 0.67 / - 3.04 / + 1.42pct to 0.39% / 3.31% / 1.04% / 3.42% year-on-year respectively. Net interest rate: in 2021, the company's net interest rate was 10.48% (+ 4.51pct), and in 2021q4, the net interest rate was -4.86%, year-on-year -11.45pct and month on month -15.1pct. The downstream / overseas demand of 2022q1 is enhanced, the profit per ton of white cardboard is improved month on month, and the profitability of the company is expected to be repaired.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials and energy; Policy environmental impact; Market competition intensifies.
