A week's events
China has strengthened the layout of "steady growth" in many aspects, and accelerated the pilot reform of factor allocation. On January 4, the PMI data of Caixin China's manufacturing industry in December 2021 showed that both supply and demand had improved, but there were still problems in employment and expectation. The epidemic situation outside China and overseas demand were unstable factors. It is expected that the policy will continue to be applied to precision drip irrigation related fields in the future; On the 4th, Han Wenxiu published his article "stabilizing the macro economy is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue", proposing that we should prevent both synthetic and decomposition fallacies, and stabilize the macro-economic market from expanding domestic demand, stimulating market vitality and scientific and technological innovation; On the 5th, the draft for comments on accelerating the work related to the rural e-commerce system and express logistics distribution system in the county was released. It is expected to accelerate the construction of rural express logistics distribution infrastructure and promote the strategic goal of Rural Revitalization and agricultural and rural modernization in the future; On the 5th, the Symposium on tax reduction and fee reduction chaired by Li Keqiang summarized the results of tax reduction and fee reduction in recent years, and listened to opinions and suggestions on further tax reduction and fee reduction for market players. It is expected to continue to strengthen tax reduction and fee reduction for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the first quarter to reduce the tax burden of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises; On June 6, the overall pilot plan for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation was issued, which will accelerate the reform of China's all factor market allocation during the 14th Five Year Plan period, give better play to the synergy of various factors while improving China's factor market system, and better promote high-quality economic development in the downward stage of potential growth rate.
Overseas: there are many unstable factors in the economic recovery, and the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of raising interest rates. On January 1, 2022, RCEP officially came into force for 10 Asia Pacific countries to promote the balanced development of China's foreign trade import and export, export or enter the fast lane of textile and clothing, light industry, auto parts and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other industries, and directly benefit cross-border e-commerce, port shipping and other fields; On the 4th local time, both the prime minister and the governor of the Central Bank of Japan delivered speeches on the epidemic situation and economic situation. In the short term, there are still unstable factors in Japan's economic recovery under the influence of epidemic prevention policy, global epidemic and supply chain bottlenecks; On the 4th local time, OPEC + said that it would maintain an increase of 400000 barrels / day in the next month. The oil production policy is still affected by geopolitics, covid-19 epidemic, supply chain interruption and other uncertain factors. It is expected that the crude oil price will remain high in the short term and gradually decline in the medium and long term; On the 4th local time, the employment data of some European countries such as Germany, Spain and France improved, but recently, the number of confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia increased, and the uncertainty of labor market recovery increased. It is still necessary to be vigilant against the epidemic and inflation risks; On the 5th local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC monetary policy meeting. The tone of the minutes was significantly hawkish. It mentioned the possibility that interest rates can be increased in advance and faster, the interval from the start of interest rate increase to the start of table contraction is shorter than expected, and the table contraction speed is faster than the previous table contraction cycle. However, there are still differences within the Federal Reserve on the rate increase speed, The outbreak and uncertainty in the job market will affect the Fed's action.
High frequency data: upstream: crude oil prices rose on a weekly basis, while iron ore prices rose on a weekly basis; Middle reaches: the price index of means of production and the price of main industrial raw materials decreased on a weekly basis; Downstream: real estate sales fell on a weekly basis and auto retail rebounded in December; Prices: vegetable prices rose slightly on a weekly basis, while pig prices fell on a weekly basis.
Focus next week: euro zone unemployment rate in November (Monday); China's December CPI, PPI and the United States' December CPI; Japan's November trade account (Wednesday); China's December trade data, US December PPI (Thursday); Japan's December PPI, France's and Spain's December CPI, Germany's GDP annual rate, euro zone's November trade account, US December retail sales and industrial output data (Friday).
Risk tip: Overseas inflation is high, and China's demand recovery is less than expected. twenty-four thousand nine hundred and seventy-four
