Macro monetary performance
Chinese currency
Monetary volume: the overall capital is abundant. In terms of open market operation, the central bank has carried out RMB 10 billion 7-day reverse repo for four consecutive working days, adding that RMB 650 billion 7-day reverse repo expires every week and RMB 50 billion 14-day reverse repo expires. This week, the central bank has accumulated a net return of RMB 660 billion, a new high since February. However, considering the small capital demand at the beginning of the month, it is in line with the practice to recover some funds, combined with the standard reduction and financial capital investment at the end of the year, The overall capital of the market is abundant.
Currency price: interest rate trend differentiation this week. Short term interest rates fluctuated downward. Among them, the overnight Shibor decreased by 29 BP to 1.8390%, and the inter-bank pledge repo weighted interest rate (R007) decreased by 42 BP to 2.1316%. The medium-term interest rate declined slightly and was relatively stable as a whole. Shibor decreased by 1.2 to 2.5780% in six months. The yield to maturity of three-month interbank certificates of deposit decreased by 16.92 BP to 2.4162%. Compared with the decline of medium and short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates bottomed out this week, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose 4.27 BP to 2.8181%.
Global currency
Monetary volume: the global currency is still loose, but the tightening expectation is gradually increasing. The total assets of the Federal Reserve were 8.77 trillion yuan, and the total assets continued to rise. According to the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in December 2021 released by the Federal Reserve, it is expected to raise the federal fund interest rate in advance, and start the process of reducing the balance sheet thereafter. The total assets of the European Central Bank continued to rise as a whole, with total assets of 8.51 trillion euros as of December 24. The stronger inflation outlook in Europe, combined with the improved economic recovery and the increased expectation of liquidity tightening, from the statement of the European Central Bank, if the inflation outlook is stronger, it will take action to raise interest rates at any time and reduce monetary policy if necessary. The total assets of the Central Bank of Japan rebounded after a sharp decline last week. As of December 31, the total assets were 723.77 trillion yen. Affected by the spread of global price inflation, the Bank of Japan may adjust the “Dove” policy and tighten expectations in combination with the gradual rise of the price index.
Currency price: in the short term, the capital price has increased, and the market liquidity has not tightened yet. The LIBOR of US dollar fluctuated higher recently, rising by 0.83 BP to 0.0727%, but there is still a certain distance compared with that before the epidemic; The secured overnight financing rate (sofr) has remained at 0.05% since December 21, 2021; Overnight reverse repo trading volume decreased slightly during the week. In the medium and long term, under inflation concerns, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike has increased, the US bond yield has risen as a whole, the two-year US bond yield is 0.87%, which is at a high level in recent two years, the 10-year US bond yield has increased by 24 BP to 1.76%, and the long-term and short-term interest rate spreads have widened. The interest rate spread between China and the United States and between China and Europe narrowed significantly. As of January 7, the interest rate spread between China and the United States decreased by 24.86 BP to 1.0666% compared with December 31, and the interest rate spread between China and Europe increased by 19.71 BP to 2.8266%. The dollar index fluctuated downward this week. As of January 7, the US dollar / RMB central parity fell 15 BP to 6.3742 compared with December 31, and the US dollar index rose 23.13 BP to 95.7388.
A-share market liquidity
Capital supply side
Northbound funds, new development funds and ETFs all maintained net inflows, but the inflows fell compared with last week; The balance of the two financial institutions was changed from outflow to inflow. The net inflow of funds from Beishang was 6.203 billion yuan, which narrowed compared with the previous period; The net inflow of ETF funds was 9.294 billion yuan, down significantly from last week; The issuance scale of public funds has been reduced to 8.159 billion yuan, which has fluctuated significantly in recent weeks and is far below the one-year average at present; The financing balance changed from net outflow to net inflow of RMB 5.899 billion, and the sentiment in the capital market eased.
Capital demand side
The total capital demand rose simultaneously, the financing scale of the primary market maintained an upward trend, the reduction of industrial capital narrowed, and the transaction costs were basically stable. The primary market financing was 17.44 billion yuan, which rebounded slightly after the sharp decline in financing scale last week; Compared with last week, the plan for additional issuance and allotment decreased slightly by 2.468 billion yuan to 6.927 billion yuan; Industrial capital decreased by 1.793 billion yuan this week, down sharply from the previous period; This week, the market value of the restrictions on sales and the lifting of the ban rose slightly to 69.8 billion yuan, and the future funds will gradually break through the moving average while hovering; Transaction costs decreased slightly to 9.82 billion yuan, which remained stable on the whole.
Industry capital flow
This week, both domestic and foreign capital showed optimism, but there were great differences in the judgment of specific industries. Foreign capital is mainly optimistic about the banking industry, while domestic capital is mainly optimistic about the media and pharmaceutical and biological industries.
Foreign capital: northward capital focuses on finance and cycle, with the largest bank inflow of RMB 3.947 billion. Real estate and non bank finance have also changed from reducing their holdings last week to increasing their positions, ranking in the forefront; Significant net outflow occurred in electronics, food and beverage, of which the electronics industry had the largest net outflow, with an outflow of 4.177 billion yuan.
Domestic capital: leverage capital, focus on the media and pharmaceutical and biological industries, and greatly reduce holdings in the real estate industry; Only industry ETFs maintained a net inflow of ETF funds. Both theme ETFs and broad-based ETFs were net outflows, and the wide-based ETFs decreased from a significant net inflow last week to a small net outflow this week. All sectors of ETF in the industry have net inflow this week, and the outflow trend of cycle and science and technology growth sector has been reversed. Among them, new energy vehicles and semiconductors in science and technology growth sector are favored; The large financial and large consumption sectors continued to have a net inflow, and the net inflow of securities companies, banks, medicine, food and beverage was large; The net outflow of theme ETF was basically the same as that of last week; Broad based ETF, CSI 500 and CSI 300 have changed from net inflow to net outflow, and are no longer the main force of net inflow.
Risk tips
The impact of the new epidemic, the monetary policy was less than expected, and the economy accelerated downward
