It is expected that the impact of the epidemic in China is limited, and it is optimistic about the recovery of industrial and international brands in 2022. The key recommended targets / benefited targets this week:
(1) OEM leader: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) , beneficiary: virgin;
(2) sports shoes and clothing retailer leader: taobo;
(3) sports and leisure leaders: Anta sports, Li Ning, Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) ;
(4) target of other sub blocks: Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) . We believe that in 2022, the work performance was better than that of brands, mainly due to the weak performance of brands in 2021q4 under the influence of cold winter and repeated epidemic, 2022h1 will enter a high base, and the capacity of OEM enterprises is expected to accelerate the release under the normalization of epidemic. The international brand fy2022 gradually recovers, the online of Nike and other international brands gradually recovers and the marketing resources are improved. It is expected that the performance of fy2022 will be more flexible under the recovery of low base and supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to the epidemic benefit targets with high base and strong growth driving force.
The Q4 data of Alibaba platform sports shoes and clothing continues to verify the logic of gradual recovery of international brands
(1) continuous improvement of international brands: in 2022w1 / 2021.12/2021q4, Nike's growth rate was -0.29% / - 5.26% / - 14.45%, Adidas's was -11.76% / - 39.04% / - 36.08%, and SKECH's was -4.07% / - 10.58% / + 12.62%; (2) Chinese brands are weak in 2021q4. It is expected that leading brands will still have a high speed before the high base in 2022h1: the growth rates of 2022w1 / 2021.12/2021q4, Li Ning, Anta, Feile and Tebu are + 67.37% / + 43.82% / + 33.15%, 32.68% / 21.21% / 27.78%, 77.29% / 13.08% / 34.30% and 25.15% / - 0.33% / 4.59% respectively.
Focus on company updates this week
(1) Shenzhou International: as of January 9, 2022, there were 38 cases in Beilun District of Ningbo, the emergency response level has been reduced to level II emergency response, and the temporary closure management measures except for the sealed and controlled areas have been lifted. Under the strong epidemic control, the production capacity in Ningbo, China is expected to recover within 1-2 weeks, and the overseas production capacity, except for 80% of Deli garment production capacity, Deli fabrics and WorldCom garments have recovered 95% + production capacity, overseas production capacity has recovered, and the epidemic in China has not continued to spread. It is expected that the epidemic will have a limited impact on the total production capacity under capacity recovery measures such as local Chinese New Year. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the relevant governments took effective measures to "close the area but not the port". From January 1 to 5, the container throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan port was 450800 TEU, the same year-on-year. It is expected that the impact of Beilun epidemic on China's logistics chain is limited.
(2) Anta Sports: the Beijing Winter Olympics is approaching, and the Winter Olympics marketing is speeding up. It is less than 30 days before the Beijing Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. According to the assessment of who, the risk of epidemic spread will not increase during the Beijing Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. The official media will speed up the publicity of the Winter Olympic culture. Anta will step up the layout of Winter Olympic marketing, and jointly release the digital collection of athletes with 12 Chinese teams for the first time The Kwai super x is also the champion of the national team's master of the same technology, and vigorously promotes the technology of Olympic Winter Olympic Games and releases the champion series new products. Anta hot technology won the ispo Global Award. With the support of science and technology, the product power was improved, and the logic of strengthening the national sports brand image with the help of Winter Olympic marketing continued to be fulfilled.
(3) Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) : the high base of medical business has passed and will return to normal growth. The business of cotton era has sufficient growth momentum under the new strategic plan, which is expected to drive the overall growth of the group by 20% - 30% in 2022. At present, the online channel revenue of cotton era accounts for about 60%. More than 80 stores are opened in 2021, and about 120 stores are expected to be opened in 2022, of which 40% - 50% are franchised stores, From the perspective of store efficiency, the floor efficiency of big stores is gradually improved.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation outside China has worsened and the shortage of international brand supply chain has intensified.
