I. review and theme of this week:
This week, Shenwan pharmaceutical index fell 3.94%, ranking 23rd in the whole industry, losing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and outperforming the gem index. This week, we analyzed the high growth targets of 2021q1-3 performance to provide some reference for investors to screen high growth stocks in 2021 annual report. (Note: this week refers to 2022.1.3-2022.1.9)
II. Recent resumption:
This week, the pharmaceutical industry is adjusting as a whole, but the transaction volume is still very good. The transaction volume accounts for an average of more than 10% this week, and the heat is very high. For the reasons for the poor performance this week, we believe that the core assets are more adjusted due to the impact of “position adjustment expectation and position adjustment expectation”, and the weakening of several hot main lines with good early performance, such as “traditional Chinese medicine”. Structurally, covid-19 kit and epidemic line performed strongly on Friday. What is the reason behind it? We think it is the “performance pre increase” line to cooperate with the epidemic fermentation outside China. In fact, this week’s main line structure is divided into two parts: first, it is still “undervalued +” and the essence is high-low switching. We should continue to pay attention to it for a long time in the future. Second, the popularity of “performance pre increase +” has increased. In fact, the performance pre increase into the plate shows three “pharmaceutical upstream”, “CXO” and “epidemic line”, especially covid-19 detection “. The market response is to superimpose the consideration of chip structure and short-term market style, and the” covid-19 detection “is selected periodically. In addition, we can see that the market still has a desire for the theme. For example, the theme of “Helicobacter pylori” this week shows that there is no need to be pessimistic about the market. Later, some new main lines are gradually taking shape and should be paid attention to, such as “rehabilitation” (based on the great change of population structure), “innovative drugs of traditional Chinese medicine” (based on policy considerations), etc. In the same sentence, the grand view has not changed, and the market has gradually become clear. Medicine has entered the long-term configuration range, and the bottom is patient and upward. In the first half of 2022, the bottom-up stock selection strategy relying on the track rather than the track should be the main tone.
III. plate view:
1. Thinking from the dimension of several years: if pharmaceutical investment in the past 3-4 years paid more attention to “selecting the head company of the main track to enjoy valuation expansion”, and paid more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion” in the second half of 2021, then in 2022, we should pay more attention to “the structural rhythm of the first small and the later large”. Although they are structural opportunities, their expressions are different. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our eyes. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of just demand for medicine and the long-term pull of health consumption upgrading, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low, which is the most long-term logic of medicine. However, because of people’s concerns about the reform policy of the payment end, people seem to ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logic restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, and China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China’s population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, The industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty ranks at the forefront of non medicine (the aging intensifies the expansion of just needed medicine, the upgrading of health consumption intensifies the increase of consumption medicine penetration). In the future, the allocation funds of consumption medicine will strengthen the allocation of medicine from the medium and long-term dimension, resulting in the improvement of the overall water level of medicine, which is optimistic for the long term. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: Pharmaceutical Science and technology upgrading, pharmaceutical consumption upgrading, pharmaceutical manufacturing upgrading, pharmaceutical model upgrading, etc.
2. In the medium and short term: we experienced valuation digestion in 2021. For a period of time at the end of 2021, a round of market of traditional Chinese medicine and small and medium market value seems to be declaring war on our values in the past five years. What is good? What is right? In fact, good or good, right or right, but the market expression is different at different stages. In fact, the industrial trend and industrial logic have not changed, but there will be periodic changes in the expression of valuation and position concentration. In this periodic change, the stock price will change with stages. At the present stage, if we follow the trend, we really need to grasp the rhythm. In 2022, we judge it as “small in the front and big in the back”.
3. Configuration idea:
Consumption upgrading: (1) rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300430) ; (2) Brand traditional Chinese medicine: Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) . (3) Vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (4) Ophthalmology: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) ;
Manufacturing upgrade: (1) biomedical upstream ( Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ) (2) differentiated cdmo ( Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) ) (3) API systematic upgrade ( Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) ) (4) injection outlet ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) )
Innovation Upgrading: (1) CGT ( Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland) (2) platform innovation recovery ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ) (3) innovation internationalization ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ) (4) nuclear medicine ( Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) ).
Core repair: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) .
Other long-term tracking and promising targets are: Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{ Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{{605186186} {{605186186 Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) Hanyu Group Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(300403) Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) {{ Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{{{{605605186186186186186} {{605605186186186186186} {{{605186186186186186186186} {{{{{ Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) {} {{{ Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) } {{{{{{30068677}} {{{{{{30068686868685}, {{{{{{30068677} {8}, Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , China biopharmaceutical, Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations.
